This is one of 25 props in the 11th annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2026-narcissist-forecasting-contest
The prop and any ambiguities will be resolved by a panel of human judges, as described in the fine print of the entry form:
https://forms.gle/nDDxdxyYSNheY9FV7
This means that the prop may resolve differently from how other, similar-looking Manifold props resolve. Do not bet on this market if that is going to bother you.
1,000This one is strongly trending toward No. Very little reporting from day to day about Linglong One, let alone official statements from CNNC. Most authoritative thing I see right now is https://news.cgtn.com/news/2026-03-10/VHJhbnNjcmlwdDg5NTMw/index.html from the president of CPPCC on March 10:
LU TIEZHONG CPPCC Member, President, China National Nuclear Power Co. Ltd. "Internationally, the Linglong One, small modular reactor has received a lot of attention. ... Currently, the hot functional test is underway. After fuel-loading, it will physically start operation. The overall progress is quite good. We expect to start commercial operation in the second half of the year."
Anyone out there seeing reports to the contrary?
