Will at least two Trump cabinet members leave office between Jan 20 and June 30, 2026?
14
Ṁ300Ṁ1.6kresolved Apr 2
Resolved
YES18
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is one of 25 props in the 11th annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2026-narcissist-forecasting-contest
The prop and any ambiguities will be resolved by a panel of human judges, as described in the fine print of the entry form:
https://forms.gle/nDDxdxyYSNheY9FV7
This means that the prop may resolve differently from how other, similar-looking Manifold props resolve. Do not bet on this market if that is going to bother you.
Update 2026-04-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve Yes once Pam Bondi is officially out of office (counting as the second cabinet departure).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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