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MANIFOLD
Will Vladimir Putin be named Time Magazine's Person of the Year 2022?
28
Ṁ160Ṁ2.5k
resolved Dec 7
Resolved
NO

inspired by https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/zelensky-will-be-time-magazines-man

I think by the historic standards ("most influential person") that famously named Adolf Hitler to the prize, he's a stronger candidate than Zelenskyy. Time has distanced themselves from that standard for a variety of reasons, but I could see them "owning" the standard and leaning into the Hitler comparison. IDK. Interested to see what people think the rate is, given the shockingly high (IMO) chances people assign Zelenskyy.

Sep 22, 3:30pm: If it's a joint award with one other person (e.g. "Ronald Reagan and Yuri Andropov" as BTE mentioned), I will resolve this as True. If it is more than that (e.g. "The leaders of NATO which now includes Ukraine" or "The Ukranian People") then I will resolve this to prob with a denominator equal to the number of people it's awarded to. (e.g. 4 people = 25%, 44 million people = basically zero)

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Definitely not.

All that said, I don't think the odds are a full 50%, myself

@Adam It could be both of them, it is not unprecedented. Ronald Reagan and Yuri Andropov in 1983 for instance as "Cold War Rivals".