There are many testimonies currently being given and circulated in media about incidents of mass rape of Israeli women on Oct 7.
This market will track whether an independent investigation is done and will resolve to yes if such investigation determines that these sexual crimes against women did in fact occur.
This is a timed market and ends end of 2024.
Independent organization means any recognized human rights org or other orgs that do not have direct ties or interests with Israeli security apparatus.
A single isolated case of rape will not resolve this to yes. What must be shown by the investigation is that multiple people were involved and multiple women were raped.
1,000
3.00@Accuracy name for us an event in human history which has been documented with more reliability and detail than October 7th. And are you considering any human-rights organization to be 'non-independent', simply because they might have connections on the ground in both Israel and Palestine? Non-state actors are 'non-independent' simply because their functioning relies on the humans living in the affected region? Under this framing, can you point me to events that have been independently verified elsewhere in history?
@JesseTate
Here's an example of an independent investigation by Amnesty International:
https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/mde15/5141/2022/en/
@Accuracy How is this an investigation? This is an analysis and a report.
It’s also a terrible analysis but that’s beside the point.
This should have been resolved yes a long time ago. You guys are engaged in war crimes denial. Shame on you.
https://press.un.org/en/2024/sc15621.doc.htm
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/28/world/middleeast/oct-7-attacks-hamas-israel-sexual-violence.html
@Philip3773733 While it’s very likely (at least 90%) that there rape on October 7, this market specifically asks about an “independent investigation”, which means some non-Israeli NGO has to actually do a proper investigation, while can take a while, and Israel has to let the NGO investigate it. So “no” is the correct resolution here. I gave it one star because the market maker is a propagandist but maybe I should have given two since it was resolved according to the resolution criteria.
Israel has every incentive not to let some NGO investigate this, because of the nature of these NGOs and their political bias. Next thing you know they’ll turn around and say that since they investigated Hamas’ crimes on 10/7, now they need to investigate Israel’s “genocide” in Gaza.
@Philip3773733
Not relevant to this specific market, but the mass rape claims are far from established and the articles you cited have been riddled with factual errors. Please see this recent interview where Moran Gez specifically states that not a single rape victim has come forward since Oct 7.
@Accuracy Obviously every rape victim is either dead or in Gaza. No one was held for long enough to be raped and got out alive. However, a 40 year old Amit Soussanna did say that a Hamas guy forced her to commit a "sexual act" but did not say if it was rape or not. I think Hamas is taking care not to release young women for a reason. They have not released young women like Naama Levy. Unlikely they expected this 40 year old to say such a thing. The fact that the one accusation came from a 40 year old released in a hostage deal, and Hamas has not released young women, should tell you something. Be a good Bayesian.
Here we have a written report of Human Rights Watch, but since we can't independently corroborate it, we can't say for certain if the report really exists.
https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/07/17/october-7-crimes-against-humanity-war-crimes-hamas-led-groups
At page 67, HRW recounts the allegations in media, before concluding:
Human Rights Watch was unable to independently corroborate these accounts.
HRW’s ultimate conclusion is at the beginning of the report:
Human Rights Watch was not able to gather verifiable information through interviews with survivors of or witnesses to rape during the assault on October 7.
Human Rights Watch requested access to information on sexual and gender-based violence in the possession of the Israeli government, but this request was not granted.
@OP How exactly do you independently corroborate accounts of rape when the perpetrator and victim are both either dead or in Gaza? I mean it’s quite likely the rapes happened but this market asks for something unreasonable.
@nathanwei The investigator being granted access to information held by the Israeli government as requested would be a good start.
Off the top of my head, one might expect evidence from:
Israeli witnesses
Israeli victims (not killed/taken to Gaza)
Captured perpetrator or accomplice confessions (albeit potentially coerced)
Surveillance cameras
Doctors who treated victims
Autopsies
This market asked for whether an independent investigation would look at that evidence and conclude that rapes occurred. In this case, the investigation didn’t even get past the first hurdle of gaining access to the evidence.
It would be interesting to start another market focusing on whether the Israeli justice system will convict an Oct 7 insurgent of rape.
@OP We have witnesses. You can’t get the victims or perpetrators, as they are dead or in Gaza. There aren’t surveillance cameras at a music festival. The victims and bodies are in Gaza so again what doctors?
We should start a market on whether the Israeli justice system convicts anyone at all for October 7. Israel is killing Hamas people in the war, not putting them on trial. Not clear to me that they’ll actually put any such person on trial rather than just kill them.
The question defines independent as “any recognized human rights org or other orgs that do not have direct ties or interests with Israeli security apparatus”.
The intent seems to be to exclude an investigation by any entity with a vested interest in a finding of rape, which makes sense.
If a Hamas-led investigation concluded that there was rape, then that would seem to fulfil the question. (Even if their investigation concluded that it was not Hamas partisans who did so.)
Heads up for people to check out @Accuracy 's history, his whole thing seems to be to post "just asking questions bro" questions likethis then resolve them in the pro-hamas direction regardless of evidence.
Well it's more like "will there be X standard of evidence for this allegation against Hamas" where X is some impossibly high standard. In this case the rapes definitely happened but there have not actually been any "independent investigations" of the kind that could trigger a Yes resolution. Nor are there usually such "investigations for the use of rape as a war crime". Would a similar market for any other rape as a war crime have resolved yes? A fact-finding mission that determines there is probable cause is not enough.
@Accuracy This one. You did resolve it according the description. It’s misleading though. It’s extremely likely the rapes happened even if they weren’t confirmed by some “independent investigation”. Did independent investigators ever find that rape was committed in World War II? If so how long did it take?
But you have too many slanted markets like this one. Say the one of will the NYT correct anything. If you get a bunch of eyewitness accounts of rape on October 7, my guess is at least one will be correct and at least one will be wrong.
@Accuracy Given that you opened the market and that you are the 2nd biggest NO holder, how are you trying to balance that conflict of interest?
And I'm out of the market. I'm considering the profit loss as a penalty for myself to keep in mind to always thoroughly check the market creators.
I am blocking @Accuracy so I won't accidentally bet in any of their markets in the future.
No that's not what you should be doing. I bought a small amount of yes, just so I can give @Accuracy one star. Bet 1 Mana on all of the markets and rate them one star.