What will the Fed Funds target rate be at the end of the cutting cycle?
22
11kṀ240k
resolved May 7
100%99.5%
Above 4%
0.1%
4.00-3.51%
0.1%
3.50-3.01%
0.1%
3.00-2.51%
0.1%
2.50-2.01%
0.0%
2.00-1.51%
0.2%Other

Once the FOMC starts hiking, at what interest rate will they stop?

This market will resolve based on information directly from the FOMC: The Fed - Meeting calendars and information (federalreserve.gov)

The interest rate in question will be the high end of the range specified in the FOMC press release (e.g. 5.50% as of the July meeting).

For this question's purposes, the end of the cutting cycle will be defined as, once the cutting cycle begins, the earlier of:

(1) When the FOMC next raises rates

(2) When three consecutive FOMC meetings occur without any reduction in the target rate either at or between meetings.

At inception, the "Other" answer covers interest rates 2.00% and lower. This bucket may later be split into multiple answers if it becomes the betting favorite.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ9,490
2Ṁ3,210
3Ṁ2,077
4Ṁ914
5Ṁ216
Sort by:
sold Ṁ47 YES

@AbuElBanat Resolve Above 4.00%

bought Ṁ2,500 YES

The last two meetings have seen the rate held steady. If there's no cut at or before the May meeting, that means this resolves at "Above 4%".
And Fedwatch says 81.8% chance they hold steady.

FWIW, the lowest rate I see implied by the fed funds futures market currently is 2.64%.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules