Will Ibrahim Mohamed Solih get less than 46% of the vote in the 2nd round of the Maldivian Presidential Election 2023?
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resolved Oct 2
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YES

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predicted NO

Official count is 44.49%

predicted YES

https://results.elections.gov.mv/

For this market, I have also been referring to the unofficial and official sources. Initially the unofficial counts point to barely above 46% of the votes, but I have noted that the official count shows below 46%. The number stayed the same (i.e. just below 46%) throughout the past 18 or so hours when they checked and verified the votes.

I am not sure why the entered box now shows '1' instead of '586', because I have seen them enter all the votes from each box yesterday personally, and the vote counts have stayed. I assume that it's a graphical glitch or something especially since nothing changed after the London box arrived. But if you want to be safe, perhaps we can wait for an announcement (e.g. on Twitter/X) on this one.

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