This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a change in U.S. Senate rules or precedent that lowers the threshold for cloture for any legislative action whose threshold for cloture at the time the market was created is three-fifths of all Senators duly chosen and sworn.

Modifications to budget reconciliation rules will not resolve the market to "Yes".

• Update 2025-05-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the Congressional Review Act (CRA):

  • The standard use of the CRA to overturn a regulation will not, by itself, qualify as weakening the filibuster for this market. This is because the CRA has historically not been subject to filibuster, and its use therefore does not inherently change Senate rules or precedent to lower the cloture threshold from its original state for legislative actions.

  • However, a CRA-related action could still qualify if a resolution passed using it (e.g., by a majority vote) goes broader than the CRA's established assertion of authority. This would be the case if such an action creates a new precedent that effectively lowers the cloture threshold for legislative actions that were previously subject to the filibuster.

• Update 2025-05-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified a specific scenario that will resolve the market to Yes:

  • If the Senate conducts an official vote to overrule the parliamentarian (or the chair acting on the parliamentarian's advice) on the basis that the parliamentarian's ruling is deemed incorrect, this action will be considered a weakening of the filibuster for the purposes of this market.

• Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If there is ambiguity as to whether the parliamentarian or the chair has been overruled, this market may resolve partially.