Will July 2025 be the hottest July ever? [NCEI]
Will July 2025 be the hottest July ever? [NCEI]
9
1kṀ1980Aug 8
17%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will July 2025 have the highest global land and ocean average temperature anomaly according to the Global Time Series from the National Centers for Environmental Information?
The market will resolve once the data is released.
The closing and resolution date is subject to change should the National Centers for Environmental Information update the predicted date for the release of data. The predicted date can be found in the row labeled July in the Global table at this link.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will June 2025 be the hottest June ever? [NCEI]
1% chance
Will August 2025 be the hottest August ever? [NCEI]
17% chance
Will September 2025 be the hottest September ever? [NCEI]
15% chance
Which months in 2025 will become “hottest (corresponding month) on record”, globally?
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record?
18% chance
Which months in 2025 will become “hottest (corresponding month) on record” in the US?
Will 2025 be the warmest year on record?
15% chance