Who will be nominated to the next president's cabinet?
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57
แน€7465
2025
22%
RFK Jr.
8%
Elon Musk
28%
Tulsi Gabbard
60%
Pete Buttigieg
12%
Mark Cuban
20%
Jamie Dimon
19%
Liz Cheney
11%
Merrick Garland
2%
Joe Biden
34%
Vivek Ramaswamy
41%
Deb Haaland
25%
Jon Tester
20%
Cory Booker
27%
Vanita Gupta
14%
Josh Shapiro
8%
Jack Smith
20%
Mike Lindell
33%
John F. Kelly
20%
James Mattis

Any person nominated to a cabinet position within the first 100 days of the next presidency will resolve to YES. For the purposes of this market, cabinet positions include the heads of 15 executive departments or any other positions officially designated by the White House as part of the cabinet (provided those positions require confirmation by the Senate). Should the White House not issue a list of cabinet officials within the first 100 days of the next presidency, the list from the Biden administration will be used. For the purposes of this market, only nomination will be relevant, subsequent confirmation or failure of confirmation will not be relevant.

A person will be considered to have been nominated once the Congressional Record shows that the Senate has received their nomination.

If a choice is a member of the cabinet when the next president is sworn in and remains in that cabinet position for the first 100 days of the next presidency without resigning, that choice will resolve to yes at the end of the first 100 days of the presidency, provided that they have served in that cabinet post for the entire 100 days.

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@traders Please note the addition of the following rules:

A person will be considered to have been nominated once the Congressional Record shows that the Senate has received their nomination.

and

If a choice is a member of the cabinet when the next president is sworn in and remains in that cabinet position for the first 100 days of the next presidency without resigning, that choice will resolve to yes at the end of the first 100 days of the presidency, provided that they have served in that cabinet post for the entire 100 days.

Here's some conditional markets for each candidate, too

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