Background

The Trump administration has ordered the release of previously classified files related to the assassinations of John F. Kennedy, Martin Luther King Jr., and Robert F. Kennedy. These files are expected to contain sensitive information about intelligence operations, surveillance activities, and investigative details that have been kept secret for decades.

Resolution Criteria

Each answer will be resolved independently based on credible media reports, official government statements, or direct examination of the released documents. For an answer to resolve as YES, there must be clear evidence that new, substantive information about that specific topic was revealed in the newly released files.

Answers will resolve as:

• YES if new, substantive information on that topic is revealed

• NO if no new information is revealed or if the information revealed is trivial/already known

• N/A if the files are not released or if the specific topic cannot be definitively evaluated

On Adding Answers:

• I reserve the right to N/A any answer that is not in keeping with the spirit of this market

• If an answer is added after that answer has already satisfied the criteria to resolve, that answer will resolve N/A

Read Below:

Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.

• Update 2025-07-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has announced that all answers solely related to the MLK files will be resolved to N/A. This is because these specific files have not yet been released, and the creator wishes to avoid keeping the market open indefinitely.

• Update 2025-07-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A new resolution process has been proposed due to the large volume of documents.

  • Traders have a 24-hour window to submit evidence for how an answer should resolve by replying to the creator's comment.

  • Any answer that is not resolved based on trader-submitted evidence within this timeframe will be resolved to N/A.

• Update 2025-07-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has proposed a new resolution process in response to trader feedback:

  • The entire market will be resolved to N/A.

  • Following the N/A resolution, the creator will personally pay each trader the amount of Mana they would have won if their bets had been correct.

• Update 2025-07-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to community feedback, the creator has established a new resolution process:

  • Answers with convincing evidence for a YES outcome will be resolved YES.

  • All other answers for JFK and RFK topics will be resolved N/A.

  • For answers resolved to N/A, the creator will personally pay all traders on that answer the amount of Mana they would have won if the market had resolved in their favor. This applies to both YES and NO bettors.