Background
The Trump administration has ordered the release of previously classified files related to the assassinations of John F. Kennedy, Martin Luther King Jr., and Robert F. Kennedy. These files are expected to contain sensitive information about intelligence operations, surveillance activities, and investigative details that have been kept secret for decades.
Resolution Criteria
Each answer will be resolved independently based on credible media reports, official government statements, or direct examination of the released documents. For an answer to resolve as YES, there must be clear evidence that new, substantive information about that specific topic was revealed in the newly released files.
Answers will resolve as:
YES if new, substantive information on that topic is revealed
NO if no new information is revealed or if the information revealed is trivial/already known
N/A if the files are not released or if the specific topic cannot be definitively evaluated
On Adding Answers:
I reserve the right to N/A any answer that is not in keeping with the spirit of this market
If an answer is added after that answer has already satisfied the criteria to resolve, that answer will resolve N/A
Read Below:
Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.
Update 2025-07-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has announced that all answers solely related to the MLK files will be resolved to N/A. This is because these specific files have not yet been released, and the creator wishes to avoid keeping the market open indefinitely.
Update 2025-07-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A new resolution process has been proposed due to the large volume of documents.
Traders have a 24-hour window to submit evidence for how an answer should resolve by replying to the creator's comment.
Any answer that is not resolved based on trader-submitted evidence within this timeframe will be resolved to N/A.
Update 2025-07-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has proposed a new resolution process in response to trader feedback:
The entire market will be resolved to N/A.
Following the N/A resolution, the creator will personally pay each trader the amount of Mana they would have won if their bets had been correct.
Update 2025-07-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to community feedback, the creator has established a new resolution process:
Answers with convincing evidence for a YES outcome will be resolved YES.
All other answers for JFK and RFK topics will be resolved N/A.
For answers resolved to N/A, the creator will personally pay all traders on that answer the amount of Mana they would have won if the market had resolved in their favor. This applies to both YES and NO bettors.
1,000People are also trading
@traders When I created this market, I did not realize the sheer number of records that would be released. When I create a market, my goal is to create a market with clear rules that can be resolved fairly. When I try to resolve a market, my goal is to resolve the market fairly or not at all.
To ensure that the market's resolution would follow the rules and is fair, I would have to evaluate over 100,000 pages of records (including many that are not searchable). Reading all 100,000 pages of records would, by most calculations, take slightly longer than 115 days of 24/7 non-stop reading. While I am committed to resolving my markets, spending 2778 hours of time reading over these records would require me to dedicate what I believe is a largely unreasonable amount of time to figuring out how to resolve this market and would stretch the resolution of this market for more than a year in all likelihood.
Accordingly, I'm going to propose the following resolution: within the next 24 hours anyone who believes that there's evidence for a specific option resolving in a specific way can reply to this comment with the information of what they want to resolve in the evidence that supports it, and I will make a determination as to whether that option should be resolved. For any option that has been resolved once 24 hours have elapsed, that option will be resolved N/A, and I will send all traders on this market Ṁ100 as a consolation.
Please reply to this comment with arguments for how the market should resolve or with any other questions that you may have.
@AaronSimansky As a No holder on many options I believe it's not exactly fair, because the options can only resolve Yes or NA (it's kinda hard to prove a negative by referencing a specific part). So I loose mana when I'm wrong about a thing not being revealed but I don't get mana when I'm right.
@ProjectVictory @traders How about this, instead of paying all traders Ṁ100 as consultation, I'll N/A the market and pay everyone the amount of Mana that they could have won had the question gone their way. (For the JFK and RFK markets, the MLK markets will still be N/Aed)
@AaronSimansky If you NA everything - I don't think you owe anyone anything. If you only resolve Yes or NA - I don't believe it to be fair, but you do you - I don't personally insist on any sort of compensation as I'm not holding that much mana here. Paying out everybody seems a bit too generous but maybe I'm misunderstanding what you suggest.
@ProjectVictory With respect to any markets that would not be resolved N/A because of evidence tending to show that they should resolve "YES", I feel comfortable resolving them yes, given that I would likely resolve them yes, even if I took the year necessary to analyze all of the documents and consider them. However, you will still get the benefit of the doubt for markets that cannot be proven to resolve the "YES" given that I will resolve those markets to N/A and give anybody who bet on those markets the amount of mana that they would have received, had the market resolved in their favor
@ProjectVictory Thanks for your input. My main goal when I resolve a market is that the resolution has integrity, and I'd much rather give up Ṁ1,000 than resolve the market in a way that is unfair to the people trading on it. If you feel very strongly that I shouldn't give additional compensation beyond resolving the market N/A, you are free to tip me, but you have no obligation to do so.
@traders Given that the MLK files have yet to be released, in the interest of not keeping the market open forever, I'm going to N/A all the markets solely related to the MLK files.
@AaronSimansky Correct me if I'm talking nonsense, but under what circumstance could this have resolved YES given the market criteria? If the documents are reaffirming that, yes, there was surveillance, but nothing new came of it, how does this resolve?
(I have not pored over the pages personally, yet. I had some LLM summarize it for me, so I don't want to pretend I'm authoritative on this subject.)
@traders because this incorrectly merged two questions, this question will resolve N/A and a new question will be created.