If solar geoengineering becomes a major issue in US politics, which party will support it?
16
1kṀ1952040
1D
1W
1M
ALL
50%
Democrat support
61%
Republican support
Multiple choice for the chance there is bipartisan support or opposition.
Solar geoengineering refers to things like stratospheric aerosol injection or cloud brightening, but not carbon capture.
Will resolve only once this has become a widely discussed topic for at least 6 months because initial positions can often shift (cf COVID response).
I will not participate in this market because the resolution time and verdict will likely be a bit subjective.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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