Will an "enhanced" athlete break Usain Bolt's 100m dash record in 2024?
9
177
210
2025
12%
chance

Businessman Aaron D'Souza claims that he is planning to hold the "Enhanced Games" in 2024 — an Olympics-like athletic competition where all (?) performance-enhancing drugs are permitted. He also claims to know of someone who has broken Usain Bolt's 100m sprint record.

Note that the video linked in the initial Tweet is apparently stock footage. I haven't looked closely into the extent to which the Enhanced Games are real vs. a weird PR stunt, but their Twitter responses are earnest and they've been covered (in brief) by some big newspapers.

I'm not sure of all the technical Manifold rules here, but I think this should resolve as "yes" if a record-breaking time is recorded in some official-seeming way by people who either don't have a vested interest in the outcome or are being watched by neutral observers. We'll probably know a broken record if we see it.

Note that this should resolve "yes" as long as the record is broken by an athlete who claims to be using PEDs, whether or not it happens at an event called "the Enhanced Games".

(I'd welcome other feedback on how to make this a better/more norms-abiding market.)

Get Ṁ200 play money