Will more than 1,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired at Israel during the second half of 2023?
35
302
690
resolved Oct 12
Resolved
YES

Main source for market resolution:

https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/palestinian-rocket-and-mortar-attacks-against-israel

Resolution criteria

I will use the number given by the source. If the source is unavailable at the market close, I will find another one.

Author betting policy

I will bet on this market for calibration purposes.

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With Hamas militants infiltrating Israel and resulting in hundreds of tragic deaths, the Israel-Hamas conflict escalated on Saturday. Rarely, gunfights broke out in Israeli towns. Israel stated that Hamas and other militants were holding 150 hostages in Gaza. Israel retaliated by stepping up its offensive, calling in 360,000 reservists, and establishing control over the areas it had attacked. There are worries about civilian casualties in the heavily populated area of Gaza in the event of a ground assault. With Hamas in control since 2007, Gaza is even more hard-hit. While diplomatic efforts are made for a peaceful resolution, international observers keep an eye on the situation. Concerns are raised by the way this deeply entrenched conflict is changing, which highlights expectations for a de-escalation and an end to suffering. Analysis of probabilities: Given the circumstances, there is a high chance that hostilities will continue and a moderate chance that a ground attack, highlighting how quickly diplomatic action is required.

Sources:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_rocket_attacks_on_Israel

bought Ṁ10 of YES

On Saturday morning, the Israel-Hamas conflict escalated as Hamas militants infiltrated Israel, resulting in the tragic deaths of hundreds of residents in homes and streets near the Gaza border. This brazen incursion also brought gun battles to Israeli towns, a rare occurrence in recent decades. The situation took a grim turn as Israel reported that Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza were holding approximately 150 soldiers and civilians hostage.

In response to these developments, Israel intensified its offensive on Tuesday, increasing the mobilization of reservists to a substantial 360,000 personnel. Israel's military claimed to have regained effective control over areas in its south that had been attacked by Hamas and along the Gaza border. This escalation of hostilities has raised the question of whether Israel will launch a ground assault into Gaza, a densely populated 40-kilometer-long strip of land situated between Israel, Egypt, and the Mediterranean Sea.

Gaza, home to 2.3 million people, has been under the rule of Hamas since 2007, and its residents have endured years of conflict and hardship. The potential for a ground assault introduces a new dimension to the ongoing conflict, with the risks of further civilian casualties and infrastructure damage.

As the crisis continues to unfold, international observers are closely monitoring the situation, and diplomatic efforts are being made to seek a peaceful resolution to the conflict. The evolving dynamics in this long-standing and deeply rooted conflict are a cause for concern, with hopes for de-escalation and a halt to the loss of lives and suffering on both sides.

I will wait for the source to be updated, then resolve.

bought Ṁ200 of YES

This seemed like a big barrage, I hope I'm not overestimating how big

bought Ṁ150 of YES

@chrisjbillington IDF spokesperson says over 2200, so I guess over 1000 is confirmed by both

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