Same resolution criteria as this question with the obvious modifications for each date.
https://manifold.markets/milanw/will-sam-altman-be-the-ceo-of-opena?r=QUlD
For the avoidance of doubt, these results are cumulative. For example, if Altman was reinstated in Mar 2024, then the first 3 options would resolve "Yes" and the fourth would resolve "No"
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🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,036 | |
| 2 | Ṁ845 | |
| 3 | Ṁ505 | |
| 4 | Ṁ452 | |
| 5 | Ṁ122 |
anyone willing to set a limit order at 96%? I drop it to 93 by selling which seems unnecessary
In an efficient market the last 2 options should add to 100%. Right now they are at 126%… some arb available for anyone who is so inclined…
By the axioms of probability theory, either the 3rd or 4th one has to be mispriced. I think both are, and bought lots of NO of the 4th option, but does anyone wants to buy my NO at 22% with a limit order? (I wanna use the money from it elsewhere, but if I sell it now the price goes back up to a non-sensical 44%)
@AIC To be clear, these are cumulative right? Meaning, first option should be lower than second, which should be lower than third?
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