By what date (if ever) will Sam Altman be reinstated as CEO of OpenAI?
Basic
46
20k
resolved Nov 22
Resolved
YES
Before the end of Nov 2023
·
8mo
Resolved
YES
Before the end of Dec 2023
·
8mo
Resolved
YES
Before the end of 2024
·
8mo
Resolved
NO
After Q4 2024 or never
·
8mo

Same resolution criteria as this question with the obvious modifications for each date.

https://manifold.markets/milanw/will-sam-altman-be-the-ceo-of-opena?r=QUlD

For the avoidance of doubt, these results are cumulative. For example, if Altman was reinstated in Mar 2024, then the first 3 options would resolve "Yes" and the fourth would resolve "No"

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Before the end of Dec 2023

anyone willing to set a limit order at 96%? I drop it to 93 by selling which seems unnecessary

In an efficient market the last 2 options should add to 100%. Right now they are at 126%… some arb available for anyone who is so inclined…

By the axioms of probability theory, either the 3rd or 4th one has to be mispriced. I think both are, and bought lots of NO of the 4th option, but does anyone wants to buy my NO at 22% with a limit order? (I wanna use the money from it elsewhere, but if I sell it now the price goes back up to a non-sensical 44%)

@AIC To be clear, these are cumulative right? Meaning, first option should be lower than second, which should be lower than third?

@TheBayesian - absolutely. I'll update the description to make that more explicit.

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