anyone willing to set a limit order at 96%? I drop it to 93 by selling which seems unnecessary

In an efficient market the last 2 options should add to 100%. Right now they are at 126%… some arb available for anyone who is so inclined…

By the axioms of probability theory, either the 3rd or 4th one has to be mispriced. I think both are, and bought lots of NO of the 4th option, but does anyone wants to buy my NO at 22% with a limit order? (I wanna use the money from it elsewhere, but if I sell it now the price goes back up to a non-sensical 44%)

@AIC To be clear, these are cumulative right? Meaning, first option should be lower than second, which should be lower than third?

@TheBayesian - absolutely. I'll update the description to make that more explicit.