8. Will there be a major flare-up (worse than in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict in 2022?
59
322Ṁ5042resolved Feb 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
From Scott Alexander's US/World predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ42 | |
| 2 | Ṁ40 | |
| 3 | Ṁ32 | |
| 4 | Ṁ31 | |
| 5 | Ṁ28 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be a military conflict between China and the United States by the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2026?
10% chance
Will the US and China be at war with each other before the end of 2025?
3% chance
Taiwan-China Potential Conflict: which of these will happen first, before 2029? #1
Taiwan-China Potential Conflict: which of these will happen first, before 2029? #2
Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2028?
20% chance
Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?
28% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?
32% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before 2028?
11% chance