8. Will there be a major flare-up (worse than in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict in 2022?
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resolved Feb 1
Resolved
NO
From Scott Alexander's US/World predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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predicted YES
The mainland has fired artillery on Taiwan within the last 50 years.