8. Will there be a major flare-up (worse than in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict in 2022?
59
322Ṁ5042resolved Feb 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
From Scott Alexander's US/World predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ42 | |
| 2 | Ṁ40 | |
| 3 | Ṁ32 | |
| 4 | Ṁ31 | |
| 5 | Ṁ28 |
People are also trading
Related questions
[ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?
15% chance
Taiwan-China Potential Conflict: which of these will happen first, before 2029? #1
Taiwan-China Potential Conflict: which of these will happen first, before 2029? #2
Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2028?
20% chance
Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?
29% chance