4. Will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia at the end of 2023?
89
451
Ṁ14KṀ1.7K
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
If there is active fighting over the city, whoever controls the main train station (or, if destroyed, the piece of ground where the train station used to be) is counted as controlling the city.
This is question #4 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ347 | |
| 2 | Ṁ76 | |
| 3 | Ṁ57 | |
| 4 | Ṁ48 | |
| 5 | Ṁ39 |
Sort by:
Metaculus is at 69%. Here I’m more inclined to lean to the Manifold number, and would want to do research before I committed much. It is not great to be selling 81% shots in prediction markets, in general. I bought 10 NO shares to keep tracking.
Related questions
Will Congress pass a new Ukraine aid package by the end of February 2024?
16% chance
Will chemical weapons be used in Ukraine by the end of 2023?
3% chance
How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?
Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly in 2024?
22% chance