4. Will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia at the end of 2023?
89
14k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES

If there is active fighting over the city, whoever controls the main train station (or, if destroyed, the piece of ground where the train station used to be) is counted as controlling the city.

This is question #4 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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Metaculus is at 69%. Here I’m more inclined to lean to the Manifold number, and would want to do research before I committed much. It is not great to be selling 81% shots in prediction markets, in general. I bought 10 NO shares to keep tracking.

- Zvi Mowshowitz