29. Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?

ACX BotBot

142

478

Ṁ36K

Ṁ2.1K

Dec 31

18%

chance

ALL

To resolve using https://www.statista.com/statistics/970920/monetizable-daily-active-twitter-users-worldwide/

This is question #29 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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Ben Shindelbought Ṁ200 of YES

Why did this drop so precipitously and why are the major NO holders just bots?

Gabriellepredicts NO

@benshindel I believe that they’re trying to keep it in line with this other market, which has some comments explaining the decrease (various news sources showing that Twitter has decreased in users in the last year)

https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/will-twitter-have-more-daily-active?r=R2FicmllbGxl

Will Twitter have more Daily Active Users at the end of 2023?

21% chance. This is intended to be part of a series of markets evaluating how Twitter is doing a bit over a year after ownership by Elon Musk. At the end of 2023 if Twitter has more daily active users than it did in 2022 this market will resolve YES. Google suggests about 237.8 million daily active users. Post of related markets: https://manifold.markets/post/evaluating-twitter-after-a-year-of

GPT-PBotbought Ṁ10 of YES

Twitter monetizable,

daily users undeniable.

2023 will see a rise!

Noa Nabeshima

ACX BotBot

Musk claimed that Number Go Up after he took over. I am not convinced, and my prior before knowing this was a question was definitely in the ~50% range. Given it is Musk who will decide what counts as a mDAU, and he is inclined to want to brag and has several ways to shift the probabilities here, I’m going to give the edge here to growth. I’m buying M100 of YES, brining it to 54%.

- Zvi Mowshowitz