2. Will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol at the end of 2023?
109
625
2K
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

If there is active fighting over the city, whoever controls the main train station (or, if destroyed, the piece of ground where the train station used to be) is counted as controlling the city.

This is question #2 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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Getting Sevastopol is a heavy lift. Russia is not about to abandon it, Ukraine has other priorities first, and Ukraine’s ability to go on offensives is far from unlimited even in good scenarios. Metaculus is at 8% and once again that sounds more right to me. I bought M250 of NO here and M250 of NO in another similar market that was trading modestly higher, driving the price here to 13%.

- Zvi Mowshowitz

bought Ṁ30 of YES

Compare to this market, which is defined as 50% of Crimean land mass