We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarket nor Manifold exist and are credible, we will use our judgment to select an alternative source.
This is question #18 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ3,883 | |
| 2 | Ṁ907 | |
| 3 | Ṁ765 | |
| 4 | Ṁ553 | |
| 5 | Ṁ546 |
Is this guy a joke? This is the Vincent Adultman school of governance.
@Conflux There are a dozen different bad news stories, with the "let's shut down DisneyWorld and turn it into a prison" the icing on the cake. (Yes, that's not exactly what the story is, but if you have to explain that, you're losing.) It's quite a lot of evidence that, down the road, DeSantis will screw things up more.
So the theory here is that DeSantis is much more likely than Trump to be the favorite going into the primaries, but he isn’t as good at winning afterwards? I don’t see it. Trump is not good at playing from behind while looking like a loser. This seems some combination of out of date and pure defiance of the real money markets.
I bought M250 of NO to bring this down to 52%.
DeSantis is currently at 34-35% on Polymarket, and this market will resolve according to future Polymarket prices, so YES buyers should consider trading there.
@StevenK Is it wrong if I prefer to root for the ignominious demise of Polymarket and the rise to prominence of our benevolent Manifold overlords?
@MattCWilson It’s not you, Polymarket. It’s me. You’re great, don’t change. But if you could just, yunno, off and die, that would help.
@MattCWilson In this particular case, it would be awkward because of manipulation potential.
