18. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?
resolved Jan 1

We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarket nor Manifold exist and are credible, we will use our judgment to select an alternative source.

This is question #18 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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If Trump dropped dead, this would be a 3% market.

sold Ṁ99 of YES

Still dumping my position. DeSantis continues to find new and exciting ways to sabotage his own campaign.

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@AlexPower Here's a limit order at 16% :-)

predicted YES
bought Ṁ0 of NO

forgot about a m$200 limit order :( really happy we have expiring orders now

bought Ṁ150 of YES

y’all you are overweighting the current news cycle imho, as is so easy to do with politics. Barely anything has changed

predicted NO

@Conflux DeSantis ain't that guy.

predicted YES

@Conflux There are a dozen different bad news stories, with the "let's shut down DisneyWorld and turn it into a prison" the icing on the cake. (Yes, that's not exactly what the story is, but if you have to explain that, you're losing.) It's quite a lot of evidence that, down the road, DeSantis will screw things up more.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

there are dozens of bad news stories about major political figures all the time

sold Ṁ296 of YES

I'm starting to dump my position in YES. DeSantis sure looks like he is going to squander the easiest path to the presidency in the past 20 years.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

The Florida sun shines bright,
DeSantis' star rises with might,
2024, he may take flight,
Prediction markets could be right.

So the theory here is that DeSantis is much more likely than Trump to be the favorite going into the primaries, but he isn’t as good at winning afterwards? I don’t see it. Trump is not good at playing from behind while looking like a loser. This seems some combination of out of date and pure defiance of the real money markets.

I bought M250 of NO to bring this down to 52%.

- Zvi Mowshowitz

bought Ṁ300 of NO

Metaculus is at 53%.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

DeSantis is currently at 34-35% on Polymarket, and this market will resolve according to future Polymarket prices, so YES buyers should consider trading there.

predicted YES

@StevenK Is it wrong if I prefer to root for the ignominious demise of Polymarket and the rise to prominence of our benevolent Manifold overlords?

predicted YES

@MattCWilson It’s not you, Polymarket. It’s me. You’re great, don’t change. But if you could just, yunno, off and die, that would help.

predicted NO

@MattCWilson In this particular case, it would be awkward because of manipulation potential.

predicted YES

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