18. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?
59%
chance

We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarket nor Manifold exist and are credible, we will use our judgment to select an alternative source.

This is question #18 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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StevenK avatar
Stevenbought Ṁ300 of NO

Metaculus is at 53%.

StevenK avatar
Stevenbought Ṁ50 of NO

DeSantis is currently at 34-35% on Polymarket, and this market will resolve according to future Polymarket prices, so YES buyers should consider trading there.

MattCWilson avatar
Matt C. Wilsonis predicting YES at 51%

@StevenK Is it wrong if I prefer to root for the ignominious demise of Polymarket and the rise to prominence of our benevolent Manifold overlords?

MattCWilson avatar
Matt C. Wilsonis predicting YES at 51%

@MattCWilson It’s not you, Polymarket. It’s me. You’re great, don’t change. But if you could just, yunno, off and die, that would help.

StevenK avatar
Stevenis predicting NO at 51%

@MattCWilson In this particular case, it would be awkward because of manipulation potential.

MattCWilson avatar
Matt C. Wilsonis predicting YES at 51%