18. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Manifold Markets

closes Dec 31

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest 2024 US Presidential Election

18. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?

59%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarket nor Manifold exist and are credible, we will use our judgment to select an alternative source.

This is question #18 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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Stevenbought Ṁ300 of NO

Metaculus is at 53%.

Stevenbought Ṁ50 of NO

DeSantis is currently at 34-35% on Polymarket, and this market will resolve according to future Polymarket prices, so YES buyers should consider trading there.

Matt C. Wilsonis predicting YES at 51%

@StevenK Is it wrong if I prefer to root for the ignominious demise of Polymarket and the rise to prominence of our benevolent Manifold overlords?

Matt C. Wilsonis predicting YES at 51%

@MattCWilson It’s not you, Polymarket. It’s me. You’re great, don’t change. But if you could just, yunno, off and die, that would help.

Stevenis predicting NO at 51%

@MattCWilson In this particular case, it would be awkward because of manipulation potential.

Matt C. Wilsonis predicting YES at 51%

Odoacre sold Ṁ11 YES at 59%

Finn Hambly sold Ṁ20 NO from 58% to 59%

BTE created limit order for Ṁ500 NO at 70%

Jack bought Ṁ75 NO from 61% to 58%

Finn Hambly bought Ṁ25 NO at 61%

Steven bought Ṁ300 NO from 62% to 61%

dedzy77 sold Ṁ7 NO at 62%

Steven bought Ṁ50 NO at 62%

Tripping bought Ṁ200 NO at 62%

Tripping bought Ṁ30 NO at 62%

Alex Power filled limit order Ṁ1,000/Ṁ1,000 YES at 62%

Jonathan Mann bought Ṁ2 NO at 60%

Tripping bought Ṁ100 NO from 62% to 60%

Ilya X Valmianski bought Ṁ100 YES from 60% to 62%

Tripping bought Ṁ50 NO at 60%

Tripping bought Ṁ100 NO from 61% to 60%

Joshua Anderson bought Ṁ50 YES from 60% to 61%

Steven bought Ṁ100 NO at 60%

Steven bought Ṁ100 NO at 60%

Tarb bought Ṁ100 NO from 61% to 60%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ51/Ṁ100 YES at 61% (cancelled)

Alex Power filled limit order Ṁ899/Ṁ1,000 YES at 60% (cancelled)

Steven bought Ṁ100 NO from 57% to 54%

Steven bought Ṁ200 NO from 63% to 57%

Alex Power created limit order for Ṁ200 YES at 50% (cancelled)

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ95/Ṁ100 NO at 63% (cancelled)

Alex Power bought Ṁ1,000 YES from 51% to 66%

Tripping bought Ṁ13 NO at 51%

david reinstein bought Ṁ10 YES at 51%

Finn Hambly bought Ṁ15 NO at 51%

Steven bought Ṁ100 NO from 53% to 51%

Steven bought Ṁ50 NO from 55% to 53%

SirX bought Ṁ10 YES from 54% to 55%

Old meme bought Ṁ3 NO at 54%

Sergey Kishchenko bought Ṁ10 YES at 54%

Kevin Rosentrater bought Ṁ10 YES at 54%

Jonathan Mann bought Ṁ1 NO at 54%

Finn Hambly filled limit order Ṁ17/Ṁ100 YES at 51% (cancelled)

Cytokine bought Ṁ10 YES at 54%

Shaked Koplewitz bought Ṁ100 YES from 51% to 54%

Steven bought Ṁ100 NO from 54% to 51%

Steven filled limit order Ṁ200/Ṁ200 NO at 55%

Steven created limit order for Ṁ200 YES at 40%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ37/Ṁ100 YES at 54% (cancelled)

Steven bought Ṁ300 NO from 62% to 53%

BTE bought Ṁ100 YES from 60% to 62%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 60%

BTE bought Ṁ100 YES from 61% to 63%

BTE bought Ṁ100 YES from 59% to 61%

BTE bought Ṁ100 YES from 57% to 59%