We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarket nor Manifold exist and are credible, we will use our judgment to select an alternative source.
This is question #16 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ105 | |
| 2 | Ṁ87 | |
| 3 | Ṁ42 | |
| 4 | Ṁ30 | |
| 5 | Ṁ25 |
I am short Gavin Newsom on PredictIt at 18%, it is now 14%. I would sell more now if I could. I don’t get prediction markets being so high on him, but here is one place there is a big difference between him winning the nomination, and the prediction market predicting he is most likely. The chance Newsom will ‘run away with it’ by January is almost zero. If Biden collapses, plenty of people will run and there will still be time. He could still be considered the favorite in a lot of those scenarios, but that would be a lot of polls and campaigning from now.
Is a conditional probability of 40% here for him sensible against the field? To me, the answer is clearly no, I do not think they can stay crazy that long. I bought M200 to move price to 7%, I can’t get excited enough about numbers this low to move it more. My fair is more like 4%.