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@4mur1c4 Did you decide how you want to resolve this? A poll, something else?

In any case, the close date has arrived; do you want to extend it? Cancel the market? Resolve it, or start that process (by opening the poll)?

Manifold should make this post required reading: https://manifold.markets/post/selfresolving-markets-why-they-dont

In practice, the resolutions to these types of markets have virtually no connection to reality, or even to common opinion, because people will always just snipe them in the opposite direction at the end. Even worse, the more extreme the probability is, the more tempting it is for someone to do this.

How does this resolve?

@JoshuaWilkes Based on user votes.

@4mur1c4 so whichever answer has the higher percentage when the market closes?

@JoshuaWilkes Correct

@4mur1c4 I (genuinely) don't want to be patronising or passive-aggressive or whatever, but have you considered that this might be a bad way to run a market?

You are effectively saying that the side that puts in more mana gets to win all the mana and historically this kind of market has caused problems on Manifest.

@JoshuaWilkes There’s no objective outcome here, so what would be better?

@4mur1c4 you could run a Manifold poll, or you could have it resolve to the result of public polling

[oops, already mentioned]