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MANIFOLD
Short fuse: For which X will this market get X^2 traders after X days?
17
Ṁ120Ṁ2.5k
resolved Aug 20
100%99.0%
4 ≤ X < 5 (16-24 traders)
0.1%
1 ≤ X < 2 (1-3 traders)
0.1%
2 ≤ X < 3 (4-8 traders)
0.2%
3 ≤ X < 4 (9-15 traders)
0.3%
5 ≤ X < 6 (25-35 traders)
0.1%
6 ≤ X < 7 (36-48 traders)
0.2%Other

I will adjust the market closing date for each new trader. For instance, with 7 traders, the market will close after sqrt(7) days = 2.6 days in total.

When I'm not online, the market may sometimes close prematurely. I will reopen it as soon as I'm online again.

Primarily inspired by the following market, but using bins instead of interpolation: https://manifold.markets/Mira_/how-many-traders-will-this-market-g?r=TUwxMmQx

How many traders will this market get?
Resolved CHOOSE_MULTIPLE. For each breakpoint above 8, each time the market reaches a new Fibonacci number of traders its close time will be extended by 1 month(starting from end of December). I will add new Fibonacci numbers to the options as necessary. Resolves to the linear interpolation between nearest bounding answers, or 100% to an option if it is exact. If the market has exactly 1 trader, resolves 50% to both. Example: There are 100 traders. Then this market resolves to (100 - 89) / (144 - 89) = 20% 144 and 80% 89. Current breakpoint: 233 traders -> closes at end of July
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sold Ṁ3 YES

Free 4% selling 9-15 traders for anyone new.

but now only 1.9% - maybe 1.9% is barely worth doing?
perhaps 40% between a group of 10?

bought Ṁ5 NO

9 reached in 36 hours which makes it 3 day period so at least another 36 hours so that suggests 18 which would give at least 4 days instead of 3. So seems likely to reach 16+ traders, but how likely? 79% likely?

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