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MANIFOLD
Do you like 96% odds?
22
Ṁ10kṀ5k
resolved May 11
Resolved
YES
4

I would like to test how different odds influence betting behavior. After the market closes, I will call @FairlyRandom to generate a number from 1 to 100. If the number is between 1 and 96, this market resolves to YES; otherwise, it resolves to NO. I will also record betting behavior for this and related markets with varying odds and analyze the data statistically to look for patterns in participants’ decisions.

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@4fa your random number is: 88

Salt: mmximcx366t, round: 6102964 (signature b695dbf730e9783f569bc1ce977d85e7ae0dc63137e329ce21217d6412110544d4306a41d34b8d1ec6a4d4d157d54e5906aa635e09f631b80b1ae60cede4a8c9f911b39dc2398bfbd04954549ef63b3b926b8ebe75b7ac5611d99f6804f5f7ac)

Still dumb…

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@4fa you asked for a random integer between 1 and 100, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 6102962 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 6102964, salt: mmximcx366t.

What conclusions have you come to?

opened a Ṁ1 NO at 96% order

@AlanTennant I think I want to go through a total of 40–50 markets before I publish results to avoid influencing people. Currently, I am creating 1 market per week, so it might take a bit longer. Also, I am still not sure how to best automate the data collection. If you have a specific question you are interested in, let me know, and I can DM you any findings.

@4fa thanks, I can wait.