I would like to test how different odds influence betting behavior. After the market closes, I will call @FairlyRandom to generate a number from 1 to 100. If the number is between 1 and 62 (inclusive), this market resolves to YES; otherwise, it resolves to NO. I will also record betting behavior for this and related markets with varying odds and analyze the data statistically to look for patterns in participants’ decisions.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ30 | |
| 2 | Ṁ12 | |
| 3 | Ṁ6 | |
| 4 | Ṁ3 |
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@100Anonymous I have answered this question several times before. I don't want to influence behavior before I'm done. It's also harder to automate the analysis than anticipated. Finally, if you have a specific question, I can try to figure it out and DM you preliminary results.
@100Anonymous Some preliminary statistics using Sketchy's tournament platform: https://www.sidequests.space/manifoldtournaments/tournament.html?id=8 I know it's a far cry from what I was planning, but I hope I get to it when this heatwave is over.