MANIFOLD
Do you like 95% odds?
116
Ṁ10kṀ68k
resolved Feb 7
Resolved
YES

I would like to test how different odds influence betting behavior. After the market closes, I will call @FairlyRandom to generate a number from 1 to 100. If the number is between 1 and 95, this market resolves to YES; otherwise, it resolves to NO. I will also record betting behavior for this and related markets with varying odds and analyze the data statistically to look for patterns in participants’ decisions.

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@4fa your random number is: 81

Salt: rxoi4aqykol, round: 5835462 (signature a7ae445210bd4a25ff9f8652f696ee69c6bce79ad0e4f74b9796570f398072c44fc965ce82bde7d532147e7e067e4603074224b5539272512d045f9f58bc5ab144828ead0ea04c054d23b5d994f9653442d40c5402dd80891b08827dff95d2bd)

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@4fa you asked for a random integer between 1 and 100, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 5835460 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 5835462, salt: rxoi4aqykol.

@FairlyRandom 100

between and including?

@HillaryClinton Yes, this is supposed to have true probability of 95% YES.

@HillaryClinton You tricked Dagonet into being overconfident:

@4fa lol. How did I do that?

@HillaryClinton I don't know the exact details, but when profitable users make small bets (or when unprofitable users make large bets), Dagonet tries to compensate (by betting in the same direction as profitable users and against unprofitable users). On average, that seems to be a good strategy. Markets with known odds are the exception. https://www.sidequests.space/dagonet/

Dagonet

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