[Short Fuse] By when will chris (strutheo) reach 80k traders?
3
100Ṁ777
resolved May 2
Resolved
N/A
Resolved
N/A
Before May 20
Resolved
N/A
Before May 23
Resolved
N/A
Before May 26
Resolved
N/A
Before May 29

N/A for reasons discussed in the comments. New clarified market planned for tomorrow.

As of market creation, strutheo has 78,945 traders.

I will use UTC+2 / CEST for my resolutions. So if 80k traders are not reached before a given day begins according to UTC+2, the corresponding option will resolve to NO.

Select "Top traders" here: https://manifold.markets/leaderboards

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reposted

N/A for reasons discussed in the comments. New clarified market planned for tomorrow.

reposted

Closed until I find out why different places show different numbers.

bought Ṁ223 YES

Resolve all yes.

bought Ṁ224 YES

He reached 80K

bought Ṁ1 NO

@100Anonymous 🤔


Still showing 78,961 on my end…

sold Ṁ223 YES

@4fa check the traders of his profile page

@100Anonymous Okay, that's weird, gotta ask @mods why the two numbers are different.

@100Anonymous Thanks for bringing this to my attention.

@4fa API (https://api.manifold.markets/v0/user/strutheo) suggests 80845 traders too:

{"avatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fstrutheo%2FkMuR3ttqcY.png?alt=media&token=a90c9db0-678b-42d7-9a8a-874f55f21b3d","isBannedFromPosting":false,"id":"hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2","bio":"founder of #CoolFold • 37894 burned • 69420 nuked","website":"manifold.markets/news/coolfold","idVerified":true,"lastBetTime":1746127477582,"purchasedMana":true,"twitterHandle":"Vestboy_Myst","verifiedPhone":true,"creatorTraders":{"daily":139,"weekly":590,"allTime":80845,"monthly":1974}...

@AnT Hm, let's see whether we find out why these numbers are different. I was hoping it would be clear enough that I meant the number on the Leaderboard as that's what I linked to in the description and also because it wouldn't make much sense to open this market after strutheo had already reached 80k according to his profile. 😅 But I guess that wasn't clear, so I'm leaning towards N/A and I'll have to put "Leaderboard" in the title when I make the 90k market.

I'd guess this is traders in ranked markets VS traders in all markets including unranked.

so leaderboard & profile numbers are often different for a variety of reasons. it is not safe to assume you will know exactly why/how they diverge, so if you want to make a market like this, you really need to just pick one and stick with it.

for unique trader counts, I think profile traders may include polls, whereas leaderboard doesn't? (i'm pretty sure it isn't about ranked vs unranked). but again, it is not safe to assume you will understand the exact differences these numbers can be very buggy so just pick one and use it.

@Ziddletwix Okay, good to know.

The problem here is that I thought I had made it clear enough I picked one, but then several people went with another one.

Now the question is whether to N/A and make a new market or to clarify this one and let @traders undo their bets. Do @mods have a preference? Will N/A return the market creation cost to my balance?

@4fa N/A should return the mana you paid to create the question back to your balance.

given that the question description links to the exact source you will use, i personally don't see any reason to need to N/A. but that is entirely up to you—if you think traders were sufficiently confused & the market was invalid/contradictory you are welcome to N/A it

@Ziddletwix I'd like to err on the safe side, here. I don't think the market was contradictory, but it was created under the false assumption that there is only one traders metric and in retrospect I can understand the confusion.

New market should be up tomorrow.

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