Add answers: What will be the first digit of the number of electoral votes that Trump* will win in 2024?
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50
Ṁ18kDec 21
0.2%
1
0.5%
2
99%
3
0.2%
4
0.1%
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If Trump drops out for any reason, this question will be about the Republican presidential candidate instead.
Answers will be resolved based on the actual Electoral College votes, not electors' pledges. Unfaithful electors may impact the outcome.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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I used the Metaculus dashboard and that gave like a 75% chance of something in the 200s.
Edit: Apparently it’s actually around a 50% chance.
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