I was bored enough to count dots for five minutes, and found that today's 538 forecast only puts a 37% chance on Trump getting between 200 and 300 electoral votes. Make of that what you will.

Haha, welcome to team dot count! I wonder whether there is an easier way to see that data, it must be somewhere in the background. 🤔

I used the Metaculus dashboard and that gave like a 75% chance of something in the 200s.

Edit: Apparently it’s actually around a 50% chance.

That's interesting! Do you maybe have a link?

https://www.metaculus.com/experiments/elections/

Under “Expected Electoral Votes”

Thanks!