Add answers: What will be the first digit of the number of electoral votes that Trump* will win in 2024?

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Ṁ18k

resolved Dec 18

100%99.1%

0.1%

0.4%

0.3%

0.1%Other

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If Trump drops out for any reason, this question will be about the Republican presidential candidate instead.

Answers will be resolved based on the actual Electoral College votes, not electors' pledges. Unfaithful electors may impact the outcome.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Politics

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#Trump

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Election margins

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1,000

and

3.00

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2016 Trump got 304
2020 Trump got 232

2024 Trump is at 219 if you use 538's current prediction

If Trump lost every swing state, and NE2, and ME2, and Alaska....he would still be at 215

Betting on 2 is pretty good money even if you think Kamala is gonna walk away with this.

bought Ṁ50 NO

I was bored enough to count dots for five minutes, and found that today's 538 forecast only puts a 37% chance on Trump getting between 200 and 300 electoral votes. Make of that what you will.

Haha, welcome to team dot count! I wonder whether there is an easier way to see that data, it must be somewhere in the background. 🤔

bought Ṁ10 YES

I used the Metaculus dashboard and that gave like a 75% chance of something in the 200s.

Edit: Apparently it’s actually around a 50% chance.

That's interesting! Do you maybe have a link?

https://www.metaculus.com/experiments/elections/

Under “Expected Electoral Votes”

Thanks!

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