▶️ How many views will 3Blue1Brown's "colliding blocks that compute pi" video have in three weeks (21 April)?
16
100Ṁ1792
resolved Apr 21
Resolved
2.9m
Resolved
YES
Above 2,600,000
Resolved
YES
Above 2,800,000
Resolved
NO
Above 3,000,000
Resolved
NO
Above 3,200,000

The popular math YouTuber 3Blue1Brown has recently released There’s More to Those Colliding Blocks That Compute Pi.

How many views will YouTube display for the embedded video when I check on April 21st around 16:00 UTC?

Inspired by the following and similar @Ziddletwix markets: https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/how-many-views-will-3blue1browns-bu

  • Update 2025-04-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution Time: The market will now close at 16:00 UTC on April 21, as originally mentioned in the description.

    • Important Update: This adjustment ensures the resolution is based on the view count visible at 16:00 UTC. (Human comment: Does it, little AI? Only if I don't forget to check. 😆)

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2,806,549 views

2.8 million Resolves YES

bought Ṁ25 YES

4000 more views to go

reposted

I just saw that I explicitly mentioned 16:00 UTC in the description, but that the closing time of the market was more than two hours later, so I adapted the closing time.

It's gonna make it, y'all.

reposted

Not quite sure how the market gets an expected value of 1.9m when both 2.6m and 2.8m are currently above 50%…

@4fa Perhaps it's calculating average instead of median and it considers 'below 2.6m' as 0?

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