Which country will make the next successful moon landing?

Ṁ340Ṁ1.1k

resolved Jan 20

ALL

100%93%

Japan

USA

0.8%

China

0.8%

Other

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🇮🇳 ✔️ (2023)

Next possible missions are listed here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_the_Moon

Likely candidates (sort by launch date)

Japan / Aug 27
USA / Nov 15
China / Early 2024

Note: We count only the missions using their own rockets. (eg. Falcon 9 based missions of non-US countries are not counted)

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@yk SLIM has landed and is sending signals from the surface, so this should resolve to Japan.

What counts as successful?

@Mqrius There will be ambiguity if the SLIM landed but part of the body is broken. but this time there may be no doubt on what is success for landing I think!

https://apnews.com/article/japan-moon-landing-jaxa-probe-slim-845d4868636df5ced2e1818c588f29a4

https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/japan-starts-precision-landing-moon-sniper-slim-spacecraft-2024-01-19/

@yk For me the ambiguity came from the word "successful". Yes it landed, but the landing tipped it over so it could be argued as not being successful. It certainly wasn't nominal. The market didn't have any specification of what counts as successful, so I didn't feel confident voting it up higher.