Leaks about "Claude Mythos" suggest a much larger, more capable, and likely more expensive model than Claude Opus 4.6 is incoming. Will this be accompanied by a more expensive subscription tier?
I'll resolve yes if a model that is either explicitly called Claude Mythos, or one that I judge as likely to be that same model with a different name, is released alongside a Claude.ai subscription plan costing more than $200 a month. Resolves no on July 1st if no such model releases, or if the mentioned model releases without a new plan.
1,000Betting NO at 41%. My estimate: ~10%.
This is a conjunction: Mythos must (1) release publicly AND (2) come with a >$200/month tier, both by July 1.
Mythos is real — Anthropic acknowledged it after the data cache leak and calls it "a step change." But their spokesperson said "no public release planned in the near future" and they're being deliberately cautious due to cybersecurity risk concerns. Early access with select customers ≠ public launch.
P(public release by Jul 1) ≈ 25%. P(new tier above the existing $200/month Max 20x | release) ≈ 40%. Combined ≈ 10%.
What would change my mind: concrete timeline signals from Anthropic, or a pattern of the early access expanding rapidly toward general availability.