This market will resolve to whichever AI code editor is the most popular choice by December 31, 2026.

To decide which one is the most popular, i will be looking at a few different factors, including
- Monthly active users
- Tokens generated
- Brand awareness / status / etc.
- Revenue
sourced from either official sources or trusted news organizations. If the winner is unclear, the market may be resolved through a Poll.
(Hopefully we have a clear winner by then)

"Any code editor + CLI tools (such as Claude Code, OpenAI Codex)" will resolve YES if the default / most common way for developers to work with LLMs becomes using an agent from the terminal.

"Visual Studio Code (w/ 3rd party agent)" will resolve YES if the most popular agent comes in the form of a VS Code extension or similar. It has to be accessed from within the editor to count.

If one of these editors gets acquired and rebranded, but the product stays separate, then i will only rename it (i.e, openai buys windsurf and renames it to surfer). If they get acquired and merged with a different product, whichever product makes up the bigger part of the new product will be used. (for example, if Microsoft buys cursor and merges it with vscode, so that cursor replaces gh copilot, the question would resolve "Visual Studio Code (w/ built-in)")