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MANIFOLD
What happened at the White House?
11
Ṁ1.2kṀ1.9k
Jun 22
99%
Gunshots were fired
93%
Secret Service exchanged gunfire with at least one suspect
72%
Trump was inside the White House while the event happened
62%
Trump makes a statement before midnight (ET)
61%
There was an assasination attempt
57%
We learn the identity of any suspects before midnight (ET)
53%
There was a major security failure and an investigation is opened
50%
Anyone died including suspect(s)
39%
Trump mentions the ballroom when discussing the event
32%
Shots were fired INSIDE the White House compound
22%
Anyone other than the suspect(s) died
20%
The event is labeled a terrorist attack

"There was an assasination attempt": resolves YES if there is broad media consensus in calling the event an assasination attempt on a public figure.

"Shots were fired INSIDE the White House compound": resolves YES if before market close there is reporting clearly stating that shots were fired inside the compound. Resolves NO if there is reporting clearly stating the opposite. Resolves N/A if there is no reporting of any kind about where shots were fired by market close.

"Trump mentions the ballroom when discussing the event": resolves YES if before market close and while discussing the event Trump makes any kind of reference to the ballroom. There must be video of him talking, indirect reporting wouldn't count.

  • Update 2026-05-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The "Shots were fired INSIDE the White House compound" sub-question can resolve YES based on Secret Service gunshots.

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this can resolve YES from Secret Service gunshots btw

bought Ṁ20 YES