The following Metaculus forecast is set to open soon:

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13929/country-caps-on-us-visas-end-by-2030/

This Metaculus question will resolve YES if before 2030 US immigration no longer sets per-country caps on employment-based visas, for example through the 2021 EAGLE Act. See the above link for the exact resolution criteria. Also note the existing Metaculus question with end date 2025.

When the Metaculus question opens, this Manifold market will close and one week later resolve PROB to the Metaculus "Community Prediction." This procedure is known as Reciprocal Scoring. Since Manifold incentivizes betting to the correct expected value, this is a proper scoring rule assuming Metaculus, which has a solid track record of accurate forecasts, is an unbiased estimator.