🏅 Top traders

What do you mean by "enter into force"? Doesn't EU legislation work that way that the law has to be implemented on the state level in order to have any force?

Related market:

@MrLuke255 There’s different kinds of EU legislation. Directives have to get implemented by members state’s national legislators as you mentioned. But the AI Act is a regulation. Regulations immediately becomes law when they enter into force. The entry into force happens 20 days after the legislation is published in the EU’s Official Journal. The 20 day span can changed by the legislation, though the current AI Act draft does not do so, see Article 85(1).

@1941159478 That makes sense according to what I found: https://commission.europa.eu/law/application-eu-law/implementing-eu-law_en

But I'm not sure about this part on regulations: "However, they may require changes in national legislation, and may require implementation by national agencies or regulators."

(This doesn't really concern your market though, I think.)

There is a virtually identical question on RANGE, a crowd prediction platform similar to Good Judgment Open and Infer. Interestingly, their crowd forecast is currently 73%. https://www.rangeforecasting.org/questions/66-will-the-eu-s-ai-act-enter-into-force-by-the-end-of-2023

@1941159478 I have read multiple sources that will enter into force in two to three years, since there will be a transition period. This is in line with the usual EU proceedings. I have not bet it lower, but I believe this is <1%. 73% is hilariously wrong. Maybe they are misunderstanding the question. This is about ratification right?

@kottsiek For example: https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/ai-act-eu-kuenstliche-intelligenz-gefahr-regulierung-100.html

AI Act: Regelwerk für die künstliche Intelligenz

Mit dem vom Europaparlament verabschiedeten AI Act will die EU die KI-Entwicklung in sichere Bahnen zu lenken. Warnungen vor unkontrollierte KI gibt es viele.

@kottsiek Damn. I was meaning to write a market about when the AI act will be enacted. But Googling around, it seems people use ‘enters into force’ ambiguously. Some say the GDPR for example went ‘into force’ in 2016 and others in 2018.

I’m considering to either resolve this by when the legislation is adopted or resolve this N/A and make a new market. What are people thinking?

@1941159478 what is the alternative definition? When it does not mean ratification

@kottsiek I thought the description was clear enough, can't speak for others obviously. Generally against N/A, unless there is a very good reason

@kottsiek I read around more and now I’m pretty sure ‘entry into force’ has a precise meaning. It is actually defined in Article 85(1) of the AI Act draft:

This Regulation shall enter into force on the twentieth day following that of its publication in the Official Journal of the European Union.

There is a transition period planned where rules don’t apply to individuals and companies yet. But during that period the AI Act already will be enacted and have some effect. The EU will develop detailed guidance and (probably) set up an AI Office.

Of course people betting here shouldn't have to read the 100+ page draft first. So I will clarify the description of the market. If anyone here understandably wants their losses so far refunded, message me.

@1941159478 Guess I was the one who misunderstood, no need for repayment

@kottsiek This is totally on me. I didn’t know the technical definition of ‘into force’ either when I made this market and just meant when the Act would, like, pass without thinking too much about the specifics. But since the phrase is in the question twice I’ll resolve by its technical meaning.

These seem like very important questions which could benefit from larger amount of trading

@ElliotDavies "...excluding military" I disagree. Such a law with a military exception is (slightly) worse than no law at all.

Related question on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8787/passing-of-the-ai-act/

@1941159478 here as an embed