This will resolve YES if the Artificial Intelligence Act enters into force by end of 2023. Otherwise this will resolve NO. The AI Act will go into force 20 days after it's publication.
The Artificial Intelligence Act is a regulation proposed by the European Commission that aims to establish a common regulatory framework for artificial intelligence across all sectors, excluding military. It classifies AI applications based on their risk level and regulates them accordingly, with low-risk applications facing the least amount of regulation. Medium to high-risk AI applications would require conformity assessment before being put on the market, while some applications such as remote biometric recognition and social credit scoring would face a ban or authorisation requirements. The AI Act is sometimes compared to the GDPR in its scope and global ambition.
1,000
3.00@MrLuke255 There’s different kinds of EU legislation. Directives have to get implemented by members state’s national legislators as you mentioned. But the AI Act is a regulation. Regulations immediately becomes law when they enter into force. The entry into force happens 20 days after the legislation is published in the EU’s Official Journal. The 20 day span can changed by the legislation, though the current AI Act draft does not do so, see Article 85(1).
@1941159478 That makes sense according to what I found: https://commission.europa.eu/law/application-eu-law/implementing-eu-law_en
But I'm not sure about this part on regulations: "However, they may require changes in national legislation, and may require implementation by national agencies or regulators."
(This doesn't really concern your market though, I think.)
There is a virtually identical question on RANGE, a crowd prediction platform similar to Good Judgment Open and Infer. Interestingly, their crowd forecast is currently 73%. https://www.rangeforecasting.org/questions/66-will-the-eu-s-ai-act-enter-into-force-by-the-end-of-2023
@1941159478 I have read multiple sources that will enter into force in two to three years, since there will be a transition period. This is in line with the usual EU proceedings. I have not bet it lower, but I believe this is <1%. 73% is hilariously wrong. Maybe they are misunderstanding the question. This is about ratification right?
@kottsiek Damn. I was meaning to write a market about when the AI act will be enacted. But Googling around, it seems people use ‘enters into force’ ambiguously. Some say the GDPR for example went ‘into force’ in 2016 and others in 2018.
I’m considering to either resolve this by when the legislation is adopted or resolve this N/A and make a new market. What are people thinking?
@kottsiek I thought the description was clear enough, can't speak for others obviously. Generally against N/A, unless there is a very good reason
@kottsiek I read around more and now I’m pretty sure ‘entry into force’ has a precise meaning. It is actually defined in Article 85(1) of the AI Act draft:
This Regulation shall enter into force on the twentieth day following that of its publication in the Official Journal of the European Union.
There is a transition period planned where rules don’t apply to individuals and companies yet. But during that period the AI Act already will be enacted and have some effect. The EU will develop detailed guidance and (probably) set up an AI Office.
Of course people betting here shouldn't have to read the 100+ page draft first. So I will clarify the description of the market. If anyone here understandably wants their losses so far refunded, message me.
@kottsiek This is totally on me. I didn’t know the technical definition of ‘into force’ either when I made this market and just meant when the Act would, like, pass without thinking too much about the specifics. But since the phrase is in the question twice I’ll resolve by its technical meaning.
@ElliotDavies "...excluding military" I disagree. Such a law with a military exception is (slightly) worse than no law at all.