Will Republicans win Pennsylvania, Georgia in the 2024 Presidential?
19
287
2.2K
Nov 6
75%
Pennsylvania given Georgia
70%
Georgia given Pennsylvania
63%
Pennsylvania or Georgia
55%
Georgia (regardless of Pennsylvania)
54%
Pennsylvania and Georgia
45%
Exactly one of Pennsylvania or Georgia
43%
Pennsylvania given not Georgia
42%
Pennsylvania (regardless of Georgia)
37%
Neither Pennsylvania nor Georgia
36%
Georgia given not Pennsylvania
21%
Only Georgia
20%
Only Pennsylvania

This will resolve based on the combination of the two states Pennsylvania and Georgia in which the Republican Party gets a majority of electoral college votes in the 2024 Presidential election. The conditional markets will resolve N/A if the condition is not met.

Note that this collection of markets is highly redundant and arbitrage might easily is possible. I will pay a M$2,000 bounty to the first bot to successfully keep these approximately consistent. If no-one does it in the first week or so, I might try that myself.

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YES Pennsylvania or Georgia directly arbable with NO on neither Pennsylvania nor Georgia.

You could also add things like PA given (GA or PA). You know, if you wanted to be complete about it.

Is "Pennsylvania or Georgia" inclusive or or XOR?

@nikki I assume inclusive.

@1941159478 XOR might be an interesting addition?

@EvanDaniel Yes, I meant inclusive. Also just added xor.