The following Metaculus forecast will open soon:

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14030/another-russian-offensive-in-northern-ukraine/

This question asks that Russia or a country allied with Russia to have launched a major military invasion of northern Ukraine by crossing the border into certain regions of Ukraine. The invasion must start from outside of Ukraine and not from within the country. See the link for the detailed resolution criteria.

When the Metaculus question opens, this Manifold market will close and one week later resolve PROB to the Metaculus "Community Prediction." This procedure is known as Reciprocal Scoring. Since Manifold incentivizes betting to the correct expected value, this is a proper scoring rule assuming Metaculus, which has a solid track record of good forecasts, is an unbiased estimator.

See also this market about the same question without the early resolution:

Close date updated to 2022-12-23 11:53 pm