New major Russian land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts before May?

Question

The following Metaculus forecast will open soon:

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14030/another-russian-offensive-in-northern-ukraine/

This question asks that Russia or a country allied with Russia to have launched a major military invasion of northern Ukraine by crossing the border into certain regions of Ukraine. The invasion must start from outside of Ukraine and not from within the country. See the link for the detailed resolution criteria.

This market will resolve the same as the Metaculus question. But also see this market on the same question that will resolve early to the Metaculus Community Prediction:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/1941159478/new-major-russian-land-offensive-in)

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on May 10, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.