You can see the current list here: https://support.google.com/bard/answer/13575153.
If I confirm it to be publicly available in Canada but they haven't updated that list yet, it will still resolve YES, though.
The question is specifically about its status as of December 31st, 2024. If it becomes publicly available but then Canada becomes blocked again afterwards, such that it's still blocked on December 31st, the market will resolve NO.
If Bard is rebranded to what seems like a sufficiently similar product/LLM (e.g. just called "Google Gemini"), the question will shift to that product.
If Bard is not publicly available in any country as of EOY 2024, the question will resolve N/A.
Requiring a paid user subscription does not disqualify its status as "publicly available".
Related questions
Of course, Canada is still left out in the cold still, along with Europe. But there’s hope because a Google spokesperson told iPhone in Canada, “We’re enthusiastic about bringing Bard’s generative AI potential to Canadians soon.”
“As we continue to build Bard responsibly, we’re expanding access to more countries and regions in multiple languages. We’re committed to being good partners as we work through regulatory uncertainty in Canada, and we’re looking forward to providing an update to Canadians on the availability of Bard soon,” said Google in a statement to iPhone in Canada.
https://www.iphoneincanada.ca/2023/12/06/google-bard-coming-canada-soon/