MANIFOLD
What will be true about the mystery drones flying over New Jersey (NJ)?
237
Ṁ4.7kṀ100k
Jan 31
97%
Two or more propositions in this market excluding this one will resolve as true/yes
96%
Many of them are hobbyist drones looking for/chasing the "original" drones
95%
The drones will have mostly vanished by inauguration
87%
They record images/video using digital cameras
85%
More drones are flying at night after a Sept 2023 change in FAA regulations, leading to an increase in sightings
81%
It's just hysteria/mistaken sightings
76%
Local officials lack equipment sensitive enough to gauge size and relative threat
74%
Four or more propositions in this market excluding this one will resolve as true/yes
74%
Belong to a hobbyist
41%
Their true nature will remain a mystery
28%
Uses cellular networks to send and receive data
20%
Linked to illegal drug activity
20%
Some drones use advanced technology not available to the public
13%
Belong to a large company
13%
Are investigating Plasmoids
12%
An adversary is trying to force the US's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
12%
they're designed to look like a commercial jet
12%
Redditor on r/UFOs (post with >= 10k upvotes) claims abduction by drones
12%
Belong to an activist
11%
Major Mexican TV network runs story implying drones are alien tech

In case there is no information for a long period of time, will close in the Summer of 2025. Answers with no new information will be N/A’ed in order to not tie up mana indefinitely.

  • Update 2024-16-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution will be based on official sources

    • Multiple different explanations/sources can be considered true simultaneously

    • Resolution will wait for information to be properly verified and sorted through

Market context
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@NathanScott @10thOfficial is active so tagging them here - can you please resolve your market that closed yesterday? thanks!

Resolve!!!!

@10thOfficial with the description saying, “no information for a long period of time, will close in the Summer of 2025” how’s this looking?

@10thOfficial thoughts?

@JasonQ This is why Manifold is a failed experiment in some ways. Bid on Zombie markets you'll forget about which will never be resolved anyway.

bought Ṁ50 YES

@10thOfficial do you plan to resolve at close?

sold Ṁ90 NO

Good luck resolving all of these without lots of drama due to tons of semantic ambiguities 🙃

bought Ṁ100 NO

@uair01 the degree of my surprise that this exists reveals my gross miscalibration

@d4hines Tingle is a national treasure.

@JesWolfe are commercial jets themselves "designed to look like a commercial jet" or is this only true if they are other objects designed to masquerade as jets

I bought "belong to a large company" yes thinking most of them are just airplanes, and airplanes belong to large companies. Perhaps everyone else interpreted that differently from me lol.

@BrunoParga top 1000 in the entire world is large.

Think it could be adversaries trying to force the US's hand into revealing what anti-drone tech they have. I also think there's a good chance this happened before (e.g. Gatwick/Heathrow shutdowns in the UK).

In that framing, whipping up hysteria + causing disruption is desirable and part of the playbook

reposted

At least when there is a gov shut down we can rule out if it is them or not operating them.

TV gif. Think about it guy, Kayode Ewumi points to his temple mischievously and looks into the camera. He's practically begging us to think about it.

Belong to a foreign gov @ 5%, belong to China @ 20%?

bought Ṁ50 NO

Do the counting props count each other? Can I resist asking “will three or more statements that don’t count themselves resolve yes?” This is heady stuff.

@HastingsGreer I'm out of mana, but I'd like to add something like "more options before the alphabetically median one resolve YES than after it"

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