What will be true about the mystery drones flying over New Jersey (NJ)?
➕
Plus
89
Ṁ34k
Jan 1
91%
Two or more propositions in this market excluding this one will resolve as true/yes
71%
Belong to the US military/gov
70%
Belong to a large company
68%
Their true nature will remain a mystery
62%
Belong to a hobbyist
43%
Many of them are hobbyist drones looking for/chasing the "original" drones
39%
It's just hysteria/mistaken sightings
33%
At least 1 drone is shot down and recovered
21%
Someone will attempt to shoot down a drone and end up injuring themselves or others
20%
They’re looking for ionizing radiation
18%
Belong to a foreign government/agency
10%
Operated by (foreign) intelligence agency / military of a US adversary
9%
Linked to illegal drug activity
8%
Operated by (foreign) intelligence agency / military of a country allied to the US
6%
Belong to a start-up
6%
Belong to an activist
1.5%
Terrorism
1%
AI superintelligence

In case there is no information for a long period of time, will close in the Summer of 2025. Answers with no new information will be N/A’ed in order to not tie up mana indefinitely.

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Help an Iranian drone just flew over my head and it had "Spirit" written on it in big letters.

@Predictor resolves yes for 'foreign military' and also 'ghosts'

https://youtu.be/WNc_Xakv00Y?si=7ypOwtDhaY4fbopg

Andrews AFB tower talks to military helicopters about drone activity. Posted by a journalist in DC (his videos are great, can recommend the congress tunnels video). 14 December.

Helicopter cannot keep up.

Personally I think this is a very, very strong case against its just hysteria.

90% US gov and 70% hobbiest?

Hard to see how both can be true (in a way that is a clean resolution).

I think some of this market is going to be very hard to resolve.

The fact that they have bright flashing multicolored lights on them surely eliminates a large set of potential nefarious activity

Illegal drug suppliers delivering packages to local dealers might fit

Could potentially launch the drones from boats out at sea

@MalachiteEagle they are reported to turn lights off. IIRC a police drone persisted one, it went dark and got away.

But I do agree. Personally I think it increases odds of US gov.

bought Ṁ10 YES

A solid attempt toward the "injuring others" resolution:

Trump has weighed in and called for drones to be shot down.

I often like to watch things hit the news and ask myself if something can become partisan / culture war fodder. We're not there yet but it's always entertaining (in the way a car wreck is) to see if it gets shoehorned into one.

@dezzao

“Mystery Drone sightings all over the Country. Can this really be happening without our government’s knowledge. I don’t think so! Let the public know, and now. Otherwise, shoot them down!!! DJT” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113647906240301335

sold Ṁ3 NO

@10thOfficial I think at this point this needs to be clarified: Almost certainly at least some sightings can be explained by hobbyist drones.

What’s the threshold to resolve this as yes? Is one enough?

If this is the case couldn’t they test them over airspace that wouldn’t incite media & civilian suspicion?

@elf because most military bases are not in the middle of nowhere, especially if you want to have some kind of sea access.

@Odoacre

I asked gpt & there seem to be quite a few.

Also, if there weren’t this event would not be so unusual & we’d instead be seeing this kind of testing in civilian locations all the time

@elf I did not say they don't exist, but just because they exist does not mean it's always practical to use them. Shipping equipment and staff to some faraway ocean atoll is logistically difficult, expensive, and takes a lot of time. In this case the navy (assuming it's them) clearly does not really care if civilians see the drones (and why would they, they're just... drones) so why would they make their job harder than it has to be ?

@elf this is posted below. The Reddit author looks like they have posted further theories since they made this post. There's a link to his user profile.

@ChrisChipMonk I'm getting an account no longer exists

If they are operated by a contractor on behalf of USG, will both "large company" and "usg/military" resolve?

@Predictor That counts as official confirmation that they're part of a DoD test, right?

If "will remain a mystery" resolves YES, arguably everything else would have to resolve N/A – will it?

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