Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to the four tennis players who reach the semifinals of the 2025 Cincinnati ATP Masters 1000 tournament. The official tournament website and reputable sports news outlets will serve as the primary sources for determining the semifinalists.
Background
The 2025 Cincinnati Open, also known as the Western & Southern Open, is scheduled from August 7 to August 18, 2025, at the Lindner Family Tennis Centre. This Masters 1000 event features a 96-player draw, with top seeds including:
Jannik Sinner (Italy): Defending champion and current World No. 1.
Carlos Alcaraz (Spain): World No. 2, returning after a runner-up finish at Wimbledon.
Alexander Zverev (Germany): World No. 3, seeking his first Masters 1000 title of 2025.
Taylor Fritz (USA): World No. 4, in strong form with recent deep runs in major tournaments.
Ben Shelton (USA): World No. 6, coming off his first Masters 1000 title at the Canadian Open.
Other notable participants include Holger Rune (Denmark), Lorenzo Musetti (Italy), Andrey Rublev (Russia), and Frances Tiafoe (USA). Notably, Novak Djokovic has withdrawn from the tournament due to physical concerns. (cadenaser.com)
Considerations
Tournament Schedule: The main draw begins on August 7, with the semifinals scheduled for August 16 (men's) and August 17 (women's). (atptour.com)
Player Form: Recent performances, such as Ben Shelton's victory at the Canadian Open and Carlos Alcaraz's return after a Wimbledon final, may influence outcomes.
Withdrawals: The absence of key players like Novak Djokovic and Jack Draper could impact the tournament dynamics.
For detailed information on the tournament schedule and player entries, refer to the official ATP Tour page (atptour.com), or the official draw (https://cincinnatiopen.com/score-center/draws/)
Update 2025-08-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The "Other" option in this market represents all players seeded after 15th seed, rather than functioning as a catch-all for future added options (which is not supported in Manifold Sets format).
1,000๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน165 | |
| 2 | แน135 | |
| 3 | แน76 | |
| 4 | แน39 | |
| 5 | แน35 |
People are also trading
@traders Round of 16 Matches finished today, with Ben Shelton squashing Jiri Lehecka, as well as 2 Quarter-Finals. Sinner made easy work of Felix Auger-Aliassime with a bagel, winning 6-0, 6-2. Terence Atmane, ranked ATP #136 and a Qualifier, defeated ๐ฉ๐ฐ Holger Rune (7) in straight sets 6-2, 6-3! ๐ฅ
So Sinner and Atmane are into the semifinals, and will face each other on Saturday, August 16. Very excited to see how this match goes, Atmane's performance has been very promising so far, having upset ๐บ๐ธTaylor Fritz (4) as well yesterday.
There are 2 more Quarter-Finals remaining set to happen tommorow, with ๐บ๐ธ Ben Shelton (5) facing off against ๐ฉ๐ช Alexander Zverev (3), and ๐ช๐ธ Carlos Alcaraz (2) facing off against ๐ท๐บ Andrey Rublev (9).
Happy trading for the rest of this tourney!
@traders Round of 64 matches are done. Many top seeds eliminated in their first matches, including ๐ฆ๐บ Alex de Minaur (6), ๐ฎ๐น Lorenzo Musetti (8), ๐ณ๐ด Casper Ruud (11), ๐ท๐บ Daniil Medvedev (12), ๐ฎ๐น Flavio Cobolli (15).
Jannik Sinner got his fastest win of the 2025 season in under an hour against Galan, looks like he's doing pretty well. Alcaraz almost got jumpscared by Dzumhur in the second set, ๐ป .
Also, @polymathematic, do you really think that a player seeded after 15 will make the semis? In the last 2 Masters 1000, Toronto Masters semifinalists were Zverev (1), Fritz (2), Shelton (4), and Khachanov (11). Italian Open Semifinalists were Sinner (1), Alcaraz (2), Musetti (8), Paul (11). Seems like Masters 1000 and Grand Slams have been dominated by Top 15 lately.
@105du well, two things. first of all, just mechanically, this market should add up to 400%. if you take the sum of all the remaining players right now it's 327. so it's not so much that i think "Other" is particularly likely as it is that the market seems to think there's roughly 73% slack. second of all, i would say there are some players not listed here that i think have a decent chance (read, greater than 5%) of making the semis. I would not be shocked to see Tsitsipas, Fonseca, Humbert, Michelsen, RBA (if he gets past Shelton), Lehecka, Opelka, Popyrin, or Mensik make a surprise run to the semis.
@polymathematic Honestly there aren't many traders on this market, I suppose if we had upwards of 50 distinct traders on this market, the sum of the P of the Top 15 would be much closer to 400%. But yeah, it's a good point, I was especially thinking of Popyrin and Lehecka. I see why you're the polymathematic now ๐
Again -
The "Other" option that usually includes all future added options doesn't work in Manifold Sets, only Manifold multiple choice. RIP โ so the "other" in this market represents all players that are seeded after 15, who are very unlikely to make semifinals anyways, but who knows?