Assuming they are within our past light cone, how far away is the nearest spacefaring alien civilization?
Assuming they are within our past light cone, how far away is the nearest spacefaring alien civilization?
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0-1 lightyears away (here in the solar system)
Beyond the solar system, 1-4 lightyears away (in Alpha Centauri)
5-10 lightyears away (~ 80 or so star systems)
11-50 lightyears away (~1.6k stars)
51-100 lightyears away (50k stars)
101-1000 lightyears away (250k-50k=200k stars)
Beyond 1000 lightyears but still within the Milky Way (200 bn stars)
Beyond the Milky Way but still within the local group (Andromeda, Magellanic Clouds etc.)
Beyond the local group but still within the Virgo supercluster (~2k galaxies)
Beyond the Virgo cluster but still within the Lanikea supercluster (100k galaxies)
Beyond the Lanikea supercluster but still within the observable universe (200 bn galaxies)
There is (currently) no spacefaring alien civilization within our past lightcone, so this question is moot.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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