Resolution Criteria

The market resolves YES if the Supreme Court rules in the case formally known as Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) are illegal and must be revoked or struck down. The market resolves NO if the Court upholds the tariffs as legal. The ruling is expected between now and the end of the court's session in June. Resolution will be based on the official Supreme Court opinion published at supremecourt.gov.

Background

Trump invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose "reciprocal" tariffs on goods imported from individual countries to address what he called a national emergency related to U.S. trade deficits, and invoked the same law to impose tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico, citing fentanyl trafficking as a national emergency. Lower courts ruled against the Trump administration, finding that the use of the law exceeded the administration's authority. More than 1,000 corporate entities are now involved in the legal fight.

Considerations

During oral arguments in November, both the court's liberal and some conservative justices had doubts about the legality of using the 1977 act, with Justice Neil Gorsuch—appointed by Trump—among those skeptical. The Trump administration has said if the Supreme Court rules against it, there is already a plan in place to implement tariffs using other legal provisions.