Will Manifold successfully guess who I am thinking of within a week? (Insider info and mana prize for winner)
3
100Ṁ105
Jun 5
81%
chance
26

I have one person / being / character in mind and your job is to figure out who.

Everyone can ask one yes-or-no question per 1h (can be on or off topic), and I will reply with yes, no, grey area, ask you to rephrase if it's unclear, or in rare cases refuse to answer if it would reveal vitally confidential information.

If you are the first to correctly guess the answer, I'll let you know in DMs so you can bet big on YES before I tell everyone and resolve, and I'll give you 50% of the total earned new trader bonuses.

I will not bet on this market to maintain neutrality.

Inspired by the recent wave of similar markets.

MD5 hash: 3e1f10a49d239a95a375dd4e1528343e

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Ṁ1,000
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Did you mean mana balance as in unspent mana, or net worth?

Are they in the gold league currently?

I have a suspicion that their balance changed recently.

Here's a list of everyone with a balance between 100k and 300k, from https://pxidrgkatumlvfqaxcll.supabase.co/rest/v1/users?balance=gt.100000&balance=lt.300000, then filter for people whose usernames start with N-T:
...

"na_pewno",

"nsokolsky",

"optimusprime",

"palcu",

"parhizj",

"patio11",

"patrissimo",

"qmk",

"riverwalk3",

"salexashenko",

"seemaster",

"shankypanky",

"ssh",

"stranger",

"transmissions11",

...

I've checked each of them individually and they don't have a net worth >500k

Does their username (excluding the @) start with one of the consonants in the part of the alphabet N-Q (inclusive)?


Have they made over 100 markets on Manifold?

Are they in the diamond league currently?

Is their Mana net worth greater than 700K?

Does their username (excluding the @) start with one of the consonants in the part of the alphabet N-T (inclusive)?

Are they on the all-time profit leaderboard? https://manifold.markets/leaderboards

@jcb No

Does their username (excluding the @) start with one of the consonants in the part of the alphabet A-M inclusive?

Is their mana net worth greater than 1 million?

Is their Mana net worth greater than 500k?

Is it The All Memeing Eye?

@ChristopherD No, sorry.

@ChristopherD they have a balance less than 100k mana

@100Anonymous very fair, though I think I thought I was asking about net worth

@ChristopherD also I did prominently bet in the tables vs chairs market

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