Anything called a chair or table (e.g., multiplication tables, positions of authority) counts, but things similar to chairs or tables but not called as such (e.g., benches or desks) do not count.
Update 2025-05-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the resolution process:
Market participants are encouraged to make their case for items to be considered 'chairs' or 'tables', in line with the market description.
The creator will weigh the arguments presented to determine the final counts for chairs and tables.
If, after this evaluation, chairs are determined to be more numerous than tables, the market will resolve to YES.
Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO.
Update 2025-05-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The count of chairs and tables is limited to those found on Earth.
Update 2025-05-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user's question about counting abstract multiplication tables (an example item from the original market description), the creator has specified:
Only physically existing instances of items like multiplication tables will be counted.
Abstract concepts or definitions (e.g., the mathematical idea of a multiplication table) do not count in themselves. Only their physical manifestations on Earth (such as a printed table or one displayed on a physical screen) are eligible for the count.
Update 2025-05-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to an argument that an item should not count if 'chair' is used descriptively (e.g., as an adjective in 'chair conformation') rather than as a direct noun for the item itself, the creator stated: 'Yes, only anything called a chair counts.' This indicates:
The argument that a descriptive use of the word 'chair' will be handled on a case-by-case basis to determine whether an item is 'called a chair' is accepted by the creator.
Update 2025-05-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to discussions regarding whether certain molecular structures count as chairs (e.g., the 'chair conformation' of cyclohexane), the creator has specified:
Molecular formations or conformations (such as 'chair conformation') will not be counted as chairs for the purpose of this market.
This means individual molecules adopting such a shape or conformation do not each count as a separate chair, even if the term 'chair' is part of the name of the formation or conformation.
Update 2025-05-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided provisional guidance on how digital tables will be counted:
For now, the intention is to count one digital file as one table (e.g., a single spreadsheet file would count as one table, regardless of how many distinct tables it might contain).
This approach is subject to a poll that the creator will conduct to determine the final counting method for such items.
Update 2025-05-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has explicitly confirmed that the market will not resolve to PROB. The resolution will be either YES or NO.
Update 2025-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated a change in how molecular formations or conformations (e.g., the 'chair conformation' of cyclohexane) will be assessed for the count:
A previous update specified that such formations would not be counted as chairs.
The creator has now stated they will conduct a poll on this specific issue after reviewing a new source (a 'chemist's book').
The outcome of this poll will determine if these items are to be counted, and potentially how, thereby possibly revising the earlier rule.
Update 2025-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has announced the outcome of a previously mentioned poll regarding molecular formations:
Cyclohexane chair formations will now count as chairs. This updates the rule from the AI summary dated 2025-05-09, which stated that molecular formations or conformations (such as 'chair conformation') would not be counted.
Update 2025-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided guidance on counting tensors:
Tensors that are akin to data tables can be counted as tables.
To be included in the count, a tensor must have a physical manifestation, such as existing on a file.
Tensors that exist only as abstract concepts (e.g., solely within an equation) will not be counted.
Update 2025-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is conducting a new poll to determine how cyclohexane chair formations are quantified. Specifically, the poll will decide if a cyclohexane chair formation should be counted as:
one chair, or
several chairs. This poll will further clarify the counting rules for cyclohexane chair formations, which were previously confirmed to be included in the count of chairs. The outcome of this poll will determine their specific contribution to the total chair count.
Update 2025-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is undertaking further research regarding the counting of tensors. This research is in response to discussions about:
The counting of tensors within entities like tensor fields.
The previously stated guidance that a tensor must exist on a file to be counted. The rules for counting tensors may be updated or further clarified based on the outcome of this research.
Update 2025-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has further clarified the criteria for counting tensors as tables:
In a discussion regarding tensors that are part of general physical concepts (such as those in tensor fields or a tensor existing at every point in space), the creator stated, 'All these tensors are not tabulated however'.
This indicates that for a tensor to be counted as a table, it must be tabulated. This requirement is in addition to previously mentioned conditions, such as having a physical manifestation (e.g., existing on a file) and being generally akin to data tables.
Consequently, tensors that are not presented in a tabulated format will not be counted as tables, even if they are stored on a file or otherwise have a physical manifestation.
Update 2025-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided a specific estimate for how tabulated tensors will contribute to the table count:
The creator stated, "I'm going to count them as few hundred million tables, my best estimate of how many are actually tabulated."
This indicates that tensors meeting the previously established criteria (such as being akin to data tables, having a physical manifestation on Earth, and importantly, being tabulated) will be collectively counted as contributing a "few hundred million" to the total table count.
Update 2025-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator, responding to a user's argument, stated they are "convinced" by it. This indicates an acceptance of the following principle for counting tables:
An analogy was drawn to how "chair conformation" cyclohexane molecules are counted as chairs. Following this analogy, individual molecules of substances like table salt (where "table" is part of the common name "table salt") will also be considered tables.
This principle may extend to other items similarly named with "table," such as water tables, potentially leading to them being counted based on their individual molecular instances or other highly granular measures.
This clarifies that the criterion "anything called a table counts" can apply to molecular instances if the common name of the substance or item includes the word "table," paralleling the approach established for certain types of chairs.
Update 2025-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided a new clarification regarding the counting of table salt and has refined the interpretation of the market's core criterion 'anything called a chair or table counts'. This new clarification impacts a previous understanding based on an earlier AI summary (dated 2025-05-10) where the creator was reported as being 'convinced' to count table salt molecules as tables.
Key points from the creator's latest comment:
Table salt: Individual molecules of table salt will not be counted as tables.
Reasoning for exclusion: The creator states this is because 'nobody refers to it as a table.'
Contrast with chair conformations: This is distinguished from chair conformations (e.g., of cyclohexane), which do count as chairs because, according to the creator, they 'are referred to by some experts as a "chair".'
Refined interpretation of 'called a chair/table': This indicates that for an item to be counted, it is not sufficient for 'chair' or 'table' to merely be part of its name. Instead, the item itself must be referred to as 'a chair' or 'a table.' The standard for this referral may differ (e.g., expert referral for specialized terms like 'chair conformation,' general referral for other items).
Update 2025-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided a specific rule for quantifying items like 'chair conformation' cyclohexane molecules, which are referred to as 'chairs' in specialized contexts:
In response to a discussion about these items, the creator stated, 'all the "chairs" count as 1 chair.'
This indicates that all instances of such 'chairs' (e.g., all 'chair conformation' cyclohexane molecules on Earth) will collectively count as a single (1) chair towards the total chair count.
This resolves a previous point where a poll was to determine if each such instance would count as one or several chairs, by establishing that the entire category of these specific 'chairs' contributes one unit to the total chair count.
Update 2025-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * Lookup tables are eligible to be counted as tables.
A key criterion for an item to qualify as a lookup table is whether it is something someone would reasonably call a lookup table.
The following items have been specified as not counting as lookup tables (and therefore not as tables for this market):
Multiplexers
Individual bits of memory
Update 2025-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to discussions regarding HashTables, the creator has stated:
HashTables will not count as tables for the purpose of this market.
The reason provided for this exclusion is that they are not tabulated.
Update 2025-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that the countability of the noun used to refer to an item is a relevant factor in its quantification for the market.
Specifically, if an item is referred to by an uncountable noun (also known as a mass noun) in the context being argued, it will not be counted as a large number of individual, discrete units.
This was specified in response to a user's suggestion to count 'human feces' as 'hundreds of millions' of chairs, based on the German word 'Stuhl' which can mean both feces (uncountable in this sense) and chair (countable). The creator's direct reply, 'Uncountable noun,' indicates that the uncountable nature of the term in that specific context prevents such a quantification.
Update 2025-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has updated the rule for counting HashTables:
A HashTable will now count as a table if it is called 'a table' by experts in the field.
This revises a previous ruling where HashTables were stated to not count because they were considered not tabulated.
Update 2025-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Following an exchange regarding HashTables, where a user provided evidence that experts refer to them as 'tables', the creator has asked for sources on their number. This indicates:
The creator is proceeding on the understanding that HashTables (as a category) meet the previously stated condition for counting (i.e., being 'called a table by experts in the field').
As such, HashTables that satisfy this condition will be included in the table count.
The immediate next step, as per the creator's request, is to determine the quantity of such HashTables.
Update 2025-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided an update on the estimated quantity of HashTables that will be counted:
An estimated 1 to 10 trillion HashTables will be included in the count for tables.
This estimate is based on a ChatGPT analysis referenced by the creator.
The creator has noted that, with this estimate, tables are currently leading in the overall count, and is now looking for arguments for chairs.
Update 2025-05-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided a specific count for Lookup Tables (LUTs) in FPGAs:
In response to a user's argument for counting LUTs in FPGAs, and referencing that a similar argument led to HashTables being counted, the creator has indicated that LUTs in FPGAs will be counted.
These LUTs in FPGAs will contribute 5 trillion to the total table count.
Update 2025-05-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The quantification of chair conformation molecules (e.g., of cyclohexane) is under review:
A previous ruling stated these collectively count as 1 chair.
The creator is now open to reconsidering this based on further arguments and evidence (e.g., expert usage referring to individual conformations as 'chairs').
A change to count them as a large number (potentially 1.7*10^39 or similar, based on individual molecules) is conditional on:
The creator being convinced by the arguments presented.
A subsequent poll (requiring at least 10 votes) supporting the change.
If these conditions are met, the method for counting these items will be updated.
Update 2025-05-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified the condition required to restart the poll concerning the quantification of chair conformation molecules (e.g., of cyclohexane):
A poll will be initiated if another text (beyond the one already discussed) is cited that also refers to individual chair conformations as 'chairs'.
This poll would reconsider the current rule (established in an update summarized on 2025-05-10) where all such conformations collectively count as 1 chair.
The potential outcome of this poll could change how these items are counted (as outlined in the update summarized on 2025-05-12).
Update 2025-05-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The quantification of chair conformation molecules (e.g., of cyclohexane) has been updated:
Based on evidence presented showing experts refer to these individual conformations as 'chairs', they will now be counted.
These molecules will collectively contribute approximately a decillion (10^33) chairs to the total count.
This revises a previous ruling where all such molecules collectively counted as 1 chair.
Update 2025-05-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A poll is now active regarding the quantification of chair conformation molecules (e.g., of cyclohexane).
The outcome of this poll will determine their contribution to the total chair count, potentially revising the previously stated figure of approximately a decillion (10^33) chairs (based on the AI summary of creator comment dated 2025-05-12, which updated the count for these items).
Update 2025-05-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided a final clarification regarding the quantification of chair conformation molecules (e.g., of cyclohexane):
A poll, which the creator describes as newly initiated due to further arguments, is currently active to determine how these items are counted.
The creator has explicitly stated that this is THE FINAL poll on this specific subject.
The outcome of this current poll will definitively establish the rule for counting these molecules, and no subsequent polls will be conducted on this matter.
Update 2025-05-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the quantification of chair conformation molecules (e.g., of cyclohexane):
A final poll is active to determine their count.
The poll's outcome will determine the count if the poll receives votes from at least 10 traders who 'have not bet here on May 20' (this refers to the creator's specific condition for voter eligibility).
If this condition is not met, these molecules will collectively count as 10^39 chairs.
Update 2025-05-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - HTML
<table>tags count as tables.This includes empty
<table>tags (those with no content between the opening and closing tags).
1,000I still think the case of experts sometimes referring to individual molecules of chair conformation cyclohexane as chairs sets them apart from examples like table salt, those are never referred to as just tables.
As @StepanBakhmarin commented earlier (kinda buried atm)
I see what you're saying, but here are some use cases from the same Lehningher Principles of Biochemistry that prove you wrong:
> In this most stable conformation, with adjacent rigid chairs at 60° to one another, the polysaccharide chain [of amylose] is curved.
> For cellulose, the most stable conformation is that in which each chair is turned 180° relative to its neighbors, yielding a straight, extended chain.
I can send you a pdf or attach screenshots if you want to make sure I didn't make them up. The screenshot I attached above is also close, it just says "chair structures" instead of "chairs".
@TheAllMemeingEye OK, convince me that these should indeed count as 1.7*10^39 chairs and I'll do so. Then I hold another poll and if it comes out on your side (with at least 10 votes), I change consensus
with adjacent rigid chairs
[…]
in which each chair
Does the use of plural chairs and determiner each not imply that it is a countable noun and thus each molecule is being counted separately?
@100Anonymous if you accept the authority of the experts then perhaps the poll should be asking directly about the interpretation of the word in the text rather than the concept as a whole
@TheAllMemeingEye Shoot, I think I’m actually unironically convinced.
As long as it counts if they’re only called “chairs” in specific contexts, and I suspect it should, I’ll vote in favor of that being an individual countable noun.
I’m pretty sure I owned that specific textbook, too. How embarrassing.
@TheAllMemeingEye If you can cite another text which also does this, I will restart the poll (can you suggest titles?; not sure how to word it).
@100Anonymous Lehninger is basically THE textbook for undergrad biochem, but maybe there is something in organic chemistry textbooks. I’m gonna check my basement, but I may have sold that one.
https://www.bu.edu/aldolase/biochemistry/html_docs/23_Carbohydrates_3.pdf
From biochemistry lecture notes at Boston University. Applies to a lot of polysaccharides, including cellulose, amylose, and chitin, because it explains the large scale structure of the overall molecule.
I’d maybe recommend a question like “are things nominatively referred to as chairs only in specific contexts “chairs” for the purposes of this market”, and if yes, cyclohexane probably doesn’t count but this would make every six-carbon carbohydrate subunit of a polysaccharide count. As that image states, 300 trillion kg of cellulose alone, which is about 10^39 chairs. Just for cellulose.
@Driftloom Ok, I'm convinced now that one way or the other these are chairs. Counted as a decillion chairs!
Here are the screenshots; Manifold doesn't let to attach big files, so I wasn't able to DM you the pdf
@100Anonymous I fear a majority may be attempting to misuse the poll for personal financial gain rather than serious enquiry.
I would point to dozens of publications published over decades for a definitive conclusion that "chairs" is common scientific parlance for multiple chair conformations:
https://www.google.com/search?q=chair+conformation+%22chairs%22&udm=36#ip=1
@P7777 I've got an idea. If the poll gets 10+ traders who have not bet here on May 20, I'll declare the result. Otherwise, the status quo (that these conformations count as 10^39 chairs) will hold.
@P7777 I’m sure not making any money. I’ve changed my mind like twice and I think I’m up literally one mana. But I voted along with my latest statements agreeing that monomers in polysaccharides in chair conformation are chairs, at least. (Which would mean more than just cellulose by the way. There’s also quite a lot of chitin on this planet. Not nearly as much as there is cellulose, but enough for there to be roughly 3e38 more chairs.)
@100Anonymous I want to note that this poll is worded specifically to apply to cyclohexane. But the monomer in chair conformation in cellulose, chitin, etc, is glucose, not cyclohexane.
As it’s written, it could resolve such that cyclohexane doesn’t count individual molecules as chairs, but polysaccharides such as cellulose do count their monomers in chair conformation as chairs.
@100Anonymous I think if that is the criteria, it should be contingent on at least a certain level of interest from random users, for example, say, at least 20 users voting on the poll who have not voted on this market previously.
In addition, while the direct textual evidence of certain textbooks referring to chair conformation molecules directly as chairs in some textbooks sets it apart from table salt, it is fundamentally being used as a shorthand for "chair conformation molecule," where the term "chair" is used the same way as "table" is used in "table salt." For example, the occipitofrontalis muscle is often shortened to just frontalis in anatomy textbooks. But it is obviously a muscle, not a frontalis.
@spiderduckpig I disagree. It's unlikely that the poll will reach a threshold of 20 traders who have not voted (you mean traded?) on this market previously and who thoroughly look into this subject.
Regarding your point about the occipitofrontalis muscle, isn't it as much the frontalis, as the biceps brachii is the biceps? Am I missing something?
I'm wondering though how common the use of Chair, as shorthand term for cyclohexane chair conformations really is. I'm not a native speaker, but from what I've found, I suspect that it isn't that common and that the few examples we've seen in this thread are rare handpicked exceptions.
IMO @100Anonymous should simply make a decision, without a poll. The poll should not matter at all.
@spiderduckpig I disagree entirely. The chair-ness is the structural feature that leads to it being referred to that term, not an adjective or specifier that would be useful in other contexts but not this. It is the state that makes the bond angles matter for the large scale structure of a polysaccharide, whereas table salt’s function is not altered at all if it’s on a counter instead of a table.
And, I’ll absolutely make an argument from authority here- I have academic credentials in the field and previously held the opposite position on this matter before I considered polysaccharides and not just petroleum.