Resolves YES if Trump cheats, improperly interferes with, pressures, or attempts to influence any 2026 FIFA World Cup process after July 6, 2026, 10:19:34 AM EDT / 14:19:34 UTC and before August 10, 2026.

This market is about a second qualifying instance after Trump’s first intervention in the Folarin Balogun red-card controversy. The first instance was Trump’s admitted request that FIFA review Balogun’s red card/suspension, after which FIFA suspended the implementation of Balogun’s one-match ban and allowed him to play. The second qualifying instance must involve conduct occurring strictly after July 6, 2026, 10:19:34 AM EDT.

This market resolves YES if credible evidence shows that, after the cutoff time, Trump personally, or someone acting at his direction, authorization, or clear encouragement, attempted to influence FIFA, a national football federation, World Cup tournament officials, referees, VAR officials, disciplinary bodies, appeals bodies, venue/scheduling authorities, security or visa authorities, or any comparable World Cup decision-maker in a way intended to boost the United States, help another team, hinder another team, punish a team, favor a politically preferred outcome, or otherwise affect the competitive or administrative outcome of the tournament.

Qualifying cheating/interference includes, but is not limited to:

• Trump or his agents pressuring FIFA or Gianni Infantino to overturn, reduce, impose, suspend, delay, or review a red card, suspension, roster eligibility ruling, disciplinary sanction, referee assignment, VAR decision, match scheduling decision, venue decision, travel/visa/security decision, or other World Cup administrative process.
  
  

• Trump or his agents using political pressure, threats, favors, inducements, diplomatic leverage, government power, personal relationships, or back-channel communications to try to affect the treatment of the United States, a U.S. opponent, or any other team.
  
  

• Trump or his agents intervening to help the United States, disadvantage a U.S. opponent, help a politically favored team, hinder a politically disfavored team, influence FIFA governance, or affect World Cup match conditions or competitive fairness.
  
  

The interference does not need to succeed. A failed attempt still resolves YES if credible evidence shows that a qualifying attempt occurred after the cutoff time.

If evidence emerges before the resolution deadline showing that a qualifying post-cutoff second instance had already occurred, this market resolves YES when that evidence emerges. The conduct itself must have occurred after July 6, 2026, 10:19:34 AM EDT, but the evidence can emerge later.

This market resolves NO if no credible evidence of a qualifying post-cutoff second instance emerges by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM EDT.

Evidence about additional details of the original Balogun red-card incident does not resolve this market YES unless it also shows a separate qualifying act of cheating/interference that occurred after the cutoff time.

The scheduled resolution deadline is August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM EDT, which is three weeks after the currently scheduled July 19, 2026 World Cup final. If the final is officially postponed or rescheduled, the resolution deadline should instead be 11:59 PM local New York time on the date 21 days after the actual final match date.