Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that the US government has materially cut ASML off from Cymer before January 1st 2030.

For this market, “cut ASML off from Cymer” means that a US government action prevents, or is clearly intended to prevent, ASML from owning, controlling, receiving, using, or relying on Cymer’s products, services, technology, personnel, IP, parts, or manufacturing capacity in a way that is material to ASML’s lithography business.

Examples that would resolve YES include:

• A US law, executive order, sanctions action, export-control action, CFIUS action, court order, or agency order requiring ASML to divest, spin off, sell, firewall, or otherwise separate Cymer from ASML.
  

• A US government action prohibiting Cymer from supplying ASML or other ASML group entities with light sources, components, maintenance, engineering support, software, IP, manufacturing services, or related technology.
  

• ASML, Cymer, the US government, or multiple credible major news sources report that US restrictions have effectively blocked ASML from using Cymer in its lithography products or operations.
  

• A licensing regime, sanctions designation, or export-control rule that functionally blocks ASML’s access to Cymer, even if it is framed as a licensing requirement, provided there is strong evidence that licenses are denied, unavailable, or not sufficient for normal ASML-Cymer operations.
  
  

This market does not resolve YES merely because:

• The US restricts ASML’s sales, servicing, or exports to China or another country, while ASML remains able to use Cymer internally.
  

• The US places restrictions on particular ASML tools, customers, destinations, or end uses without cutting ASML off from Cymer itself.
  

• Cymer is reorganized, renamed, merged, or transferred within the ASML corporate group without US compulsion.
  

• ASML voluntarily sells or restructures Cymer for ordinary commercial reasons, unless there is strong evidence that US government pressure or legal action forced the outcome.
  

• There are rumors, proposals, draft bills, political statements, or negotiations that do not result in a binding or effectively implemented cutoff.
  

• There are temporary administrative delays, paperwork requirements, or licensing reviews that do not materially prevent ASML from relying on Cymer.
  
  

The market resolves NO if, by January 1st 2030, there is not strong evidence that the US government has materially cut ASML off from Cymer as defined above.

If a qualifying cutoff occurs before January 1st 2030, the market resolves YES even if the action is later reversed, narrowed, stayed, or settled.