Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that a single country accounts for at least 75% of world GDP before January 1st 2040.

For this market, “world GDP” should be interpreted broadly as the total annual economic output of humanity, including economic activity on Earth and in space. This includes off-Earth production, mining, manufacturing, energy generation, computation, construction, transport, or other economically valuable activity if it would plausibly be counted as GDP or an analogous national-accounts measure by reputable economists, statistical agencies, or other credible sources.

A country’s share should include economic activity attributable to that country, including activity by its government, residents, firms, controlled territories, and entities operating under its effective legal or political control. Space-based activity should be attributed according to the best available evidence about ownership, jurisdiction, command/control, taxation, national-accounting treatment, or effective control. Merely having citizens, investors, launch sites, or suppliers involved is not sufficient by itself.

This market can resolve YES even if official GDP statistics are not yet available, as long as there is strong evidence from credible estimates, official statements, national accounts, economic analyses, or widely accepted expert consensus that one country crossed the 75% threshold before January 1st 2040.

This market resolves NO if no such evidence exists by the resolution date, or if the strongest available evidence suggests that no single country reached 75% of world GDP before January 1st 2040.

A “country” means a sovereign state, not a military alliance, treaty bloc, company, coalition, or group of aligned countries. If several countries coordinate economically but remain separate sovereign states, their GDP shares should not be combined unless they have legally merged into a single sovereign country before the threshold is reached.

GDP share should be based on annual economic output, not wealth, market capitalization, asset ownership, military power, territorial claims, or control of resources that have not yet been converted into economic production. Claims over space resources do not count unless they correspond to actual economic activity.

Resolution should use the best available evidence, prioritizing official national accounts, international organizations, reputable economic research, and broad expert consensus. If sources disagree, the resolver should use their judgment about which sources best capture actual economic output, including any nonstandard or space-based activity.