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MANIFOLD
Will Maine join the EU before 2060?
4
Ṁ100Ṁ55
2059
34%
chance

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Maine, or a clear successor political entity substantially corresponding to present-day Maine, becomes part of the European Union or a clear successor, continuation, or transformed version of the European Union before January 1st 2060.

For this market, “Maine” may include the current U.S. state of Maine, an independent Maine, a renamed or reorganized polity substantially covering Maine, or Maine as part of another sovereign country or political union. Minor border changes, changes in internal administrative status, or changes in name should not prevent a YES resolution if the territory and population of present-day Maine are clearly included.

“The European Union” may include the EU as it exists today, or a substantially continuous successor or transformed entity, including but not limited to a European federation, confederation, empire, or other supranational European polity that is broadly recognized as the legal or political continuation of the EU.

This market resolves YES if Maine is meaningfully and formally included within that entity before the deadline, whether through accession, federation, annexation, constitutional transformation, treaty, merger, or another legally effective process. Mere applications, negotiations, non-binding referendums, political statements, cultural association, trade agreements, observer status, or informal alignment are not sufficient.

Resolves NO if, by January 1st 2060, there is not strong evidence that Maine or its clear successor has formally become part of the EU or such a successor entity.

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